Halve farm fire count and Delhi will see no severe air day this Oct, Nov: Safar | Latest News Delhi - Hindustan Times
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Halve farm fire count and Delhi will see no severe air day this Oct, Nov: Safar

Oct 05, 2022 11:44 AM IST

Gufran Beig, founder director at Safar, said in the first ”business as usual” scenario -- if the number of fire incidents is similar to last year‘s count of 80,000 with the events peaking towards mid-November -- then Delhi is expected to see around five to six ”severe” air days.

The national capital would not see a single ”severe” air day -- when the air quality index (AQI) reading climbs above 400 -- in October or November this year, provided the stubble fire incidents are halved to what they were last year, when around 80,000 fire incidents were reported, forecasts by the System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research (Safar) said.

Safar calculated the contribution of stubble fires to Delhi’s overall PM2.5 concentration, and came up with two scenarios for the months of October and November. (Amal KS/HT Photo) PREMIUM
Safar calculated the contribution of stubble fires to Delhi’s overall PM2.5 concentration, and came up with two scenarios for the months of October and November. (Amal KS/HT Photo)

The government agency, under the ministry of earth sciences, calculated the contribution of stubble fires to Delhi’s overall PM2.5 (ultra fine inhalable particulate matter) concentration, and came up with two scenarios for the months of October and November, after factoring in an early Diwali (on October 24 this year) and the meteorological conditions expected to prevail around Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) during the two months.

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Gufran Beig, founder director at Safar, said in the first ”business as usual” scenario -- if the number of fire incidents is similar to last year‘s count of 80,000 with the events peaking towards mid-November -- then Delhi is expected to see around five to six ”severe” air days.The city will also see a higher number of ”very poor” days as compared to the same period last year.

“While this will still keep “severe” air days count lower than last year’s, since Diwali will be celebrated in the last week of October, there will be “smog-like” episodes,” said Beig.

An AQI between zero and 50 is considered “good”, 51 and 100 ”satisfactory”, 101 and 200 ”moderate”, 201 and 300 ”poor”, 301 and 400 “very poor”, and 401 and 500 ”severe”.

“In the second scenario, factoring in the early Diwali and with all the other parameters remaining the same, if we limit the fire count to 40,000 or half of what it was last year, with events peaking towards end of October, then Delhi will not see any “severe” air day and the ”very poor” days may increase slightly or remain the same as last year,” he said.

“The number of “poor”, “moderate” and ”satisfactory” days may also increase in this scenario,” Beig said, adding that by mid to end of October, wind speeds will pick up and if stubble fires peak around that time, then its impact on Delhi will be reduced,” he added.

A late Diwali also impacts Delhi pollution as was seen in 2021 when Diwali on November 4 and 2020, when it was celebrated on November 14. While October 2021 saw only six “poor” air days and zero ”very poor” or ”severe” days, November 2021 recorded 11 ”severe” days, 17 ”very poor” days and two ”poor“air days.

In October 2020, Delhi recorded 15 ‘”poor” days, nine ”very poor” days and zero ”severe” days and in November that year, there were nine ”severe” air days, eight ”very poor” days and 10 ”poor” air days.

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Experts said this generally happens as meteorological conditions in November are more conducive to trapping pollutants locally, including a lower inversion layer, lower temperatures and northwesterly winds that bring emissions from stubble burning states to Delhi.

“This year, we will have see a positive impact from the graded response action plan (Grap) measures being enforced earlier -- on October 1 as opposed to October 15 last year. Diwali is also earlier this year and depending on the level of enforcement on the ground, stubble burning is the only other key factor that can make Delhi suffer,” says Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research, Centre for Science and Environment.

Last year, the highest single-day farm fire count was recorded on November 5, when 5,327 fires were reported in Punjab. In 2020, it was on November 7, when 5,235 fires were recorded.

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