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2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls: Grand alliance of Opposition parties may remain elusive
The SP has indicated a preference for tie-ups with smaller parties, the BSP wants to go it alone, Congress open to alliances but feels a solo bid will strengthen party organisation
A broad-based political alliance bringing all the key players together is likely to remain elusive for the Opposition ahead of the 2022 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.
Despite alliances, the Opposition failed to defeat the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the 2017 assembly elections. The situation was no different in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls although there were no major alliances then.
As the BJP gears up for the 2022 UP assembly elections by balancing caste and regional equations, the Opposition appears a divided house as of now.
Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has given indications about going for an alliance only with the smaller parties, saying the SP has had bitter experiences of aligning with major political parties (the BSP in 2019 and with the Congress in 2017).
Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati, on the other hand, has declared her party will go it alone in the assembly polls in UP and Uttarakhand. Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has said her party is open to an alliance to achieve the objective of defeating the BJP though going it alone will help strengthen the party organisation.
“All major parties are unlikely to come together. There will, however, be alliances for sure for the 2022 UP assembly polls. Major parties need to work out a common minimum programme for forming a workable alliance instead of just reaching an electoral understanding before the polls,” said SK Dwivedi, former head of department of political science, Lucknow University.
The BJP worked out successful poll alliances both in 2019 and 2017. Since then, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) has parted ways with the BJP. The Apna Dal (Sonelal) continues to be its alliance partner and is likely to remain so in 2022.
Alliances on the other hand have not worked for the Opposition. Alliance partners have parted ways soon after the elections with claims of bitter or bad experiences of joining hands. The BSP and the SP that contested the Lok Sabha elections together parted ways soon after the polls. The RLD, a partner in the SP-BSP alliance, however, had an understanding with the SP in the panchayat polls.
The SP, the Congress and the RLD had contested the assembly polls together in 2017. The SP and the Congress parted ways after the elections.
“Yes, alliances in the past have not been stable. The Janata Party experiment also failed eventually,” said Dwivedi.
The BJP’s vote share was 49.97% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh. This is much more than the total vote share of the major opposition parties — the BSP (19.42%), the SP (18.11%) the Congress (6.36%) and the RLD (1.68%).
In 2017, the BJP won the UP assembly elections with 39.67% of the total votes polled against the the BSP’s (22.23%), SP (21.82%), the Congress (6.25%) and the RLD (1.78%).
