Assembly election results: North won, Maharashtra could be BJP’s next target

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victory in four of the five states that went to the polls is likely to lead

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victory in four of the five states that went to the polls is likely to lead to the party getting more aggressive in cornering the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in the state.

BJP workers celebrate the party's win in the Assembly election on Thursday. Bhushan Koyande/ HT Photo

MVA leaders say that buoyed by its success, the BJP may try to tap into disgruntled elements in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Congress, and Shiv Sena, or may try to precipitate a situation wherein President’s rule may be imposed in the state, followed by mid-term elections.

The BJP’s sweep in Uttar Pradesh has indicated that the north Indian voter is firmly with the party and this straw in the wind shows that the Hindi-speakers who have substantial numbers in Mumbai, Thane, and other urban pockets, may choose to go with the BJP in the civic polls due this year.

Political analyst Hemant Desai said that the MVA government seems to be in the danger zone. “The BJP has no option but to recapture a large, industrialised state like Maharashtra,” he said, adding that there is a chance that MPs and legislators from MVA constituents are likely to defect to the BJP for better prospects. The Congress is in a difficult position, while the Sena, instead of fanning its national ambitions, will have to struggle to hold on to its base in Mumbai.

BJP spokesperson Prem Shukla said BJP-ruled states have returned the party to power. “Even in Maharashtra, the mandate was in favour of Devendra Fadnavis... So, in the forthcoming elections, the BJP will surely win,” he added.

“The victories in Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur, and Uttarakhand have served as a morale booster for us,” said a senior BJP leader and legislator from Mumbai, adding that though this may not immediately affect the fate of the MVA, it shows that the BJP may hold an edge even in Maharashtra considering the general mood.

A senior Congress leader said the BJP may make a serious effort to destabilise or corner the MVA government. “They may try to wean away disgruntled elements from the Sena and the NCP. These parties are gradually being weakened from the inside. However, whether they will make any headway is doubtful as the MVA has the numbers. The BJP may also look at imposing President’s rule and return to power after calling fresh elections.”

A Sena leader, however, said the results are not very surprising, except in Goa, where the Congress was expected to return to power.

Mumbai has a chunk of voters, both Hindus and Catholics, from Goa and also from areas bordering Goa like Sindhudurg and Kolhapur. “The present players in the opposition cannot stand up to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There is a general lack of strategy,” the leader said.

The Sena leader further said that the substantial non-Maharashtrian voters in Mumbai and other areas are likely to support the BJP in the civic polls, while the Sena could see a challenge in keeping its core and auxiliary vote base intact considering the inroads made by the BJP in upper class and upper caste Marathi speakers.

The Sena has controlled the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation for five unbroken terms since 1997. The richest civic body in Asia is crucial for the party’s control over Mumbai and to keep the wheels of its reward economy well-oiled by ensuring that benefits trickle down to its cadre and functionaries.

Environment minister and Yuva Sena chief Aaditya Thackeray said the results will not have any impact on Maharashtra politics. “The MVA will keep working for the state.”

Unlike the Maharashtrians, who are by-and-large seen as Sena supporters, the north Indian vote is perceived to be fickle. Their support for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh may translate into gains for the party in the Maharashtra civic polls.

The results could also affect the internal dynamics of the MVA, with the Congress, which is number three in the alliance, being pushed further to the margins.

A Congress leader said the poll debacle reflects a deeper malaise in the ranks as it symbolises the general drift in the leadership and organisation. This and the weakening of the high command and the authority of the Gandhi family will have a trickle-down effect in Maharashtra, he said.

However, NCP spokesperson Clyde Crasto said the results will not affect the fate of the state government. “These results don’t matter. The government is doing well,” he added.

“The BJP is just adept at marketing and event management... The results will not have any impact on the MVA government,” said Sena legislator and spokesperson Manisha Kayande.

BJP leader and former finance minister Sudhir Mungantiwar said the MVA had not come together for the people, but for the interests of their family and kin. “They are here to safeguard the interests of their family... this smacks of political self-interest.”

“In Maharashtra, the picture is not baaki. We do not want power to be ministers... the people are in trouble from one end of the state to another,” said Mungantiwar, adding that the masses are seeking a regime change.