Everything for those 48 Lok Sabha seats

With the next general elections barely a year away, the BJP as well as the opposition parties have begun working on permutations and combinations to bag most of these seats. What will happen with NCP? Will MVA break? What we know for sure is that the bid to win the 48 seats could cause an upheaval in the state’s politics

Whatever happens in Maharashtra politics over the next few months is ultimately for the battle of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. With the next general elections barely a year away, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as well as the opposition parties have begun working on permutations and combinations to bag most of these seats. In the past two general elections, the BJP and its allies did well in the state. In 2014, they won 42 seats. In the 2019 elections, BJP-Shiv Sena won 41 of 48 seats (BJPs 23, Shiv Sena 18). The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) won four, while Congress and AIMIM got one seat each and one independent, Navneet Rana, won as NCP-sponsored candidate (she hopped on the BJP bandwagon after winning). While it prepares for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s concern is to retain the 23 seats and get most of the 18 seats that were bagged by the Shiv Sena on which chief minister Eknath Shinde led Sena has staked claim. Of these 18 MPs, 13 are with Shinde, while the remaining five are with the Thackeray faction.

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According to BJP insiders, they believe that most of the 48 seats, especially Sena’s 18 will see a close contest between the ruling alliance and the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA). There is an estimate that the MVA could win 15 to 20 seats. If that happens, it will make a difference for the BJP in its national tally. That explains why efforts are on to get the NCP out of the MVA. Leaders of the MVA say attempts will be made to engineer a Shinde-style coup in the NCP if Sharad Pawar does not accept the demand of Ajit Pawar and some senior leaders to join hands with the BJP. Under the Shinde model (as it is called now), a group of MLAs announces that they are the real party, get recognition from the Assembly speaker and then approaches the Election Commission of India to stake claim on the party name and election symbol. We know what the ECI did in the case of Shiv Sena. What will happen with NCP? Will MVA break? What we know for sure is that the bid to win the 48 seats could cause an upheaval in the state’s politics.

Kaun banega mukhyamantri?

There have been speculations whether Eknath Shinde will continue as chief minister or in case he goes, who would occupy the hot seat. Ajit Pawar has already thrown his hat in the ring, and it could be not just in MVA but if opportunity arises, even in a BJP-led coalition. Second is revenue minister Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil, who dumped Congress to join BJP ahead of 2019 elections. He has been busy doing the rounds of Delhi these days. Many in the BJP camp also insist that the real claimant should be Devendra Fadnavis, who led the BJP-Sena combine to victory in the 2019 elections. Since then, the chief ministership has remained elusive for him. He became CM for barely three days as he and Ajit tried to form a government. He toiled to pull down the Uddhav Thackeray-led government by helping Shinde split the Shiv Sena. While everybody in the BJP believed that he would be the CM, his bosses sprung a surprise and anointed Shinde. And then there are claims on the other side too. Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders keep saying that the Shinde government will go after the Supreme Court verdict on the split in Shiv Sena and Thackeray would return as CM. On Saturday, state NCP chief Jayant Patil said the MVA would be in power and NCP will get chief ministership. What he did not say was that he had earlier announced that he would like to be CM if NCP gets the post. A section in NCP vouches for party MP Supriya Sule as the next CM. There does not seem to be a dearth of chief ministerial candidates. All they need now is the majority.

In need of an image overhaul but time is running out

As his image has taken a beating, chief minister Shinde’s team has roped in a Delhi-based consultant for an image makeover and to improve political communication. This happened as big brother BJP was having second thoughts about Shinde’s ability to get votes for them. His aides suspect that his utility for the BJP might be over after splitting the Sena and taking away the official party from the Thackeray family. The BJP has realised they cannot rely on him to transfer traditional Shiv Sena votes to the alliance’s kitty. That is why BJP top brass has started looking for options. Shinde’s party performed poorly in the recent Agriculture Produce Market Committees (APMC) elections, which is an indication of the mood among rural voters. In this backdrop, Shinde camp is now trying hard to get the support for the party and its leader on the ground. Can they manage to win over Thackeray family’s loyal supporters? There has not been much success for them so far.