Maharashtra sees 3,131 new Covid cases; experts call for caution

On Tuesday, Maharashtra reported 3,131 new Covid cases and 70 deaths taking the case tally to 6,527,629 and the toll to 138,616. Dr Joshi has the word of caution as he says the drop in number could be a lull before the storm.

Even as the past 10 days have witnessed a drop in the daily caseload of the Covid-19 cases in the state, the experts have cautioned with a potential spurt in the cases in the next two weeks because of the crowding during the Ganesh festival, which ended on September 20. On Tuesday, the state reported 3,131 new infections and 70 deaths taking the case tally to 6,527,629 and the toll to 138,616. Mumbai reported 357 new cases and one death, while Ahmednagar in western Maharashtra reported the highest, 605, cases on Tuesday.

Experts have cautioned with a potential spurt in the cases in the next two weeks because of the crowding during the Ganesh festival, which ended on September 20. (Anshuman Poyrekar/HT PHOTO)

State’s daily caseload of Covid-19 cases has dropped to average 333 cases in the past ten days between September 11 and 20 (total 33,319 cases) against the average of 414 during September 1-10 (total 41,369 cases). The number of deaths in 10 days from September 11 to 20 dropped to 485 against 748 in the first 10 days of the month. In Mumbai too, the daily caseload average in the past 10 days (Sept 11-20) dropped slightly to 418 from 434 in the first 10 days of the month. The deaths reported in the city in past 10 days were, however, high at 47 against 34 between September 1 and 10.

The number of average daily tests, however, has dropped to 146,177 during September 11-20 from the daily average of 172,574 tests from September 1 to 10. The drop in the testing in the past ten days is also attributed to holidays leading to the non-availability of the facilities during Ganpati festival.

Some of the districts, including Ahmednagar, Satara and Pune continue to report a high number of cases. Ahmednagar district reported the highest, 605, cases on Tuesday, followed by Pune district (644), Satara (247) and Sangli (244). Pune has the highest number of active cases — 10,875 —followed by Thane (5,654), Ahmednagar (5,530) and Mumbai (4,966). Divisional commissioner of Western Maharashtra Radhakrishna Game has warned people of the beginning of the third wave from Ahmednagar. “We still have a high number of active cases. People are crowding for wedding ceremonies, funerals and do not follow Covid appropriate behaviour. If this continued, I fear that the third wave may begin from the district,” he said.

Out of 61 units of districts and cities in the state, 43 reported no cases on Tuesday. Seven out of 36 districts have less than 10 active cases.

Dr Shashank Joshi, member of the state-appointed task force of doctors said that though the present situation looks better, the next two weeks will determine whether there is any spurt owing to the crowding in Ganesh festival. “Since delta strain transmits rapidly, the early trends are seen in the first few days of the festival. It is a good sign that there is no rise seen in the number of cases from the beginning of the festival. But still, it could be a ‘work in progress’ and we will have to wait for two more weeks to get an idea if there would be any spurt in cases. In Mumbai too there is no significant rise in number though we have been witnessing ‘mini blips’ in the ongoing wave. The test positivity rate is less along with the R-value which is 0.89% currently. Besides the satisfactory vaccination in the city, it appears that the citizens have got reasonable exposure to the virus. However, exposure could not be complete protection,” he said.

Dr Joshi has the word of caution as he says the drop in number could be a lull before the storm. “The authorities could continue with the aggressive testing and contact tracing and keep isolating asymptomatic patients to keep the spread under control,” he said. He also added that since the recently held sero survey in Mumbai was restricted to the healthcare workers, it does not truly indicate the immunity among Mumbaiites.

Dr Subhash Salunke, former advisor to the state government on Covid-19 said that the spurt could be witnessed between October 1 and 10. “Though major parts of the state have developed immunity against the virus, which was seen in the recent sero survey in Mumbai, the risk of spurt in cases is still there. It could be witnessed 15 days after the Ganesh festival which ended on September 20. Many districts in Marathwada and Vidarbha have developed herd immunity,” he said.

Maharashtra has 272,098 people in home quarantine and 1,704 in institutional quarantine.