‘Maharashtra’s Covid-19 situation may worsen soon’

While the surge in daily cases has burdened the existing health infrastructure, the situation could worsen in the coming days, according to the government’s internal assessment, which states that Maharashtra is likely to have 1,094,996 active cases by May 2, overwhelming the existing health infrastructure

While the surge in daily cases has burdened the existing health infrastructure, the situation could worsen in the coming days, according to the government’s internal assessment, which states that Maharashtra is likely to have 1,094,996 active cases by May 2, overwhelming the existing health infrastructure.

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Most of the districts will not be left with any beds – for isolation, oxygen or ICU beds and ventilators. Instead, many would require substantial additional infrastructure, according to the report which was presented before the state cabinet in its meeting held on Tuesday. This is the reason most of cabinet members were in favour of a complete lockdown. A decision is likely to be taken by chief minister Uddhav Thackeray by Wednesday evening, said state health minister Rajesh Tope after the meeting.

Meanwhile, the rise in daily Covid-19 cases continued on Tuesday as it recorded 62,097 new cases. It also reported 519 deaths, the highest single-day toll since the outbreak started in March last year. The earlier highest was 186 days ago on September 15, 2020, when the toll touched 515. The toll has jumped to 61,343.

The surge has led to a sharp rise in active cases to 683,856 and going by the current transmission rate, the state health department has predicted that by May 2, additional 411,140 cases could be added to the tally, which will be a record 60% growth in 12 days.

Currently, the state has 782,953 isolation beds, 72,869 oxygen beds, 24,986 ICU beds, 10,629 ventilators. In terms of district-wise health facilities, Thane, Pune, Raigad, Ahmednagar, Jalna, Beed, Latur, Parbhani, Hingoli, Nagpur, Wardha, Bhandara, Gondia and Chandrapur are districts that will be left with nothing for any new patient by May 2. On the contrary, everyone will require additional isolation beds, oxygen beds, ICU beds and ventilators, according to the projection. In Mumbai, active cases will rise to 146,065 by May 2, from the current 82,671 cases. By then, the city will be left with only 3,837 isolation beds and will require additional 6,433 oxygen beds, 1,477 ICU beds and 121 ventilators, as estimated by the state health department.

Ten districts have the highest number of active cases as they comprise 491,076 cases, which comes to 72.58% of the total cases. Pune is at the top in terms of the highest number of active cases at 125,096. Mumbai comes at second position with 82,761 cases, Thane 80,440 cases, Nagpur 78,484 cases and Nashik 44,279.

Currently, the average positivity rate of cases in the state is 25.55% and there are 14 districts where the positivity rate is much higher than the average of the state. The highest is in Osmanabad (39.25%), followed by Parbhani, Hingoli, Nagpur and Gadchiroli at 36.78%, 36.70%, 35.02%, 34.30%, respectively.

“Going by the circumstances, most of the ministers were of the view that complete lockdown is the need of the hour. They even want local trains to be shut down. However, some of them opined that shutting down will be trouble for employees engaged with essential services thus only trains, vegetables and milk and medical services should be allowed,” said a minister, requesting anonymity.

State urban development minister Eknath Shinde called the surge worrisome and grave. “The Covid-19 cases are increasing and this is a grave situation. There is a shortage of oxygen and people are dying,” said Shinde. He said that lockdown was inevitable in the current situation.

Dr Harish Chafle, consultant intensivist and chest physician, Global Hospital at Parel, attributed high mortality rate to the severity of the second wave. “We are witnessing a higher number of deaths as this mutant is more severe than the previous one,” said Chafle.

Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) minister Rajendra Shingne said, “We have allowed for production of oxygen in 50-60 places at Marathwada. In addition, many of the factories have promised us supply.”

The state has tested 265,925 citizens in the past 24 hours. There are currently 683,856 active cases in the state, in which Pune leads with 117,521 cases, followed by Mumbai with 82,671 cases. Similarly, of the 61,343 deaths, Mumbai leads with 12,446 deaths, followed by Pune with 8,855.