Marathwada could be a clincher in Maharashtra’s 48 LS seats

According to experts, the Mahayuti will find it tough to retain its tally and could even lose half the seats in the region if it does not do some damage-control

JALNA: Marathwada or the Central Maharashtra region could play a decisive role in the Lok Sabha sweepstakes in the state and determine whether the ruling BJP-led NDA or the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi comes out tops. The farm crisis and the Maratha reservation agitation have queered the pitch for the ruling alliance, which had won seven out of eight seats in the region in 2019. This time, the MVA could possibly make a dent in its tally.

NDA supporters during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's election campaign rally in Nanded on Saturday. (PTI)

In the last two elections, Marathwada largely remained with the BJP-Shiv Sena (undivided) combine. This time around, the seven-month-old Maratha agitation, which has resulted in a schism between Marathas and OBCs, falling crop prices and the BJP-engineered splits in the NCP and Shiv Sena could well eat into the ruling alliance’s earlier scores. According to experts, the Mahayuti will find it tough to retain its tally and could even lose half the seats in the region if it does not do some damage-control.

For instance, the resentment in the Maratha community is so strong that former Congress CM and new BJP leader Ashok Chavan has been met with angry confrontation wherever he goes to campaign. In a village in Nanded on Thursday, Chavan was compelled to stop his speech and hear out Maratha leaders; before this, furious community members had stopped his convoy and thumped on the windshield of his car. More or less all the ruling party candidates in central Maharashtra are facing similar reactions from the Maratha community.

Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, who has been on four indefinite strikes since last August, has been campaigning in central Maharashtra. Although he is not directly campaigning for any party or candidate, his message to the community during his meetings in the villages is loud and clear. HT was witness to one such meeting where the activist instructed voters to defeat the candidates who were “against Marathas” regardless of their party and caste. “Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis hates the Marathas and it’s time to teach a lesson to certain leaders,” he told community leaders.

Dinesh Falke, coordinator of the Maratha Kranti Morcha, said the Maratha agitation would have a huge impact on all eight seats in central Maharashtra, as the divide between Marathas and OBCs had further intensified. “Most of the seats will go to the opposition combine,” he predicted. “More than Hindutva, it is caste which is playing a key role this time.” To this, the BJP’s Jalna Lok Sabha candidate Raosaheb Danve retorted that voters did not “mix up” elections and reservation, and the reservation issue would have no impact on the voting.

Other BJP leaders, however, are not as optimistic. Some said that of the seven seats held by the ruling alliance, Hingoli, Nanded and Latur were in real danger. A BJP leader from Nanded admitted that the opposition had an edge in Marathwada owing to various factors. “Barring Beed and Jalna (where Pankaja Munde and Raosaheb Danve are contesting respectively), all the other seats are in a close contest and both the sides may end up winning an equal number,” he said. “Surprisingly, in Latur and Nanded, the Congress candidates have an edge over the BJP’s sitting MPs. Similarly, Hingoli and Parbhani may go to the opposition if the position of the ruling alliance does not improve in the last leg of the elections.”

The leader added that among all the state’s regions, Central Maharashtra could contribute to the highest loss of seats for the ruling alliance, which is aiming to increase its 2019 tally of 41 to 45. In fact, in the NDA-INDIA battle, Maharashtra’s 48 seats are very important and may even decide the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

This chancy scenario has led to BJP central leaders and key leaders from the ruling alliance frequenting Central Maharashtra. Modi has already addressed two rallies on Saturday and will be back again on April 29 in Latur. Union home minister Amit Shah addressed a rally ten days ago in Nanded, while union road transport minister Nitin Gadkari was in Nanded on Monday. State leaders, including CM Eknath Shinde and deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, have addressed a number of rallies in the region.

An NCP (Ajit Pawar) leader from Parbhani said that apart from the Maratha issue, the unrest among farmers over the market price of produce and rise in input costs was a major concern. “The input cost has increased manifold owing to the hike in the price of seeds and fertilisers, and at the same time the market price of crops like soyabean and cotton has not even doubled in the last five years,” he said. “This could cost us dearly.”

Drought-prone Marathwada struggles with a lack of irrigation, aggravating agrarian distress. The prices of cash crops like cotton and soyabean have recorded a fall from ₹11,000 to ₹4,000 to ₹7,000 a quintal in 2023-24, leading to major losses for farmers. “The water stock in the Marathwada reservoir has fallen below 30%, while some dams have already dried up,” said a Shiv Sena (UBT) leader from Jalna. “When farmers are in dire need of water and cattle camps, the government machinery is busy in elections. The political leadership has no time to pay heed to such crucial issues, and this will have an impact on the election results.”

Congress and opposition leaders are claiming that they will win most of the eight seats in central Maharashtra. “The Maratha community is angry with the ruling parties for not giving them reservation,” said Sunil Wankhede, block president of the Congress in Nanded. “Voters are displeased with the BJP for engineering splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP, and their sympathies are with victims Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. They are also angry with leaders like Ashok Chavan who sided with the ruling alliance for their own benefits. All this will reflect in the election results.”