Hot weather to continue, pre-monsoon showers in first week of June: Experts

Mumbai: The current hot and humid temperature in the city is expected to continue for the next week, in the absence of any pre-monsoon activity

Mumbai: The current hot and humid temperature in the city is expected to continue for the next week, in the absence of any pre-monsoon activity. Pre-monsoon rains may only hit the city in the first week of June.

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Clear skies will accompany maximum temperatures ranging between 33 to 35 degrees Celsius and minimum temperatures around 26 to 25 degrees Celsius, according to KS Hosalikar, head of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. This is in line with the normal. Humidity will hover around 70%.

“Right now, winds are blowing in from the Arabian Sea which is why humidity levels and discomfort is high,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of meteorology and climate change at the Skymet Weather Agency. “In two to three days, the winds will slightly change directions to come from the north. Humidity may decrease to some extent, giving slight relief from perspiration and discomfort.”

Temperatures may drop marginally to 32 degrees Celsius after May 23, Palawat said adding any pre-monsoon rains before the end of the month will be isolated occurrences.

Akshay Deoras, a meterologist, said, “The exact date of the onset of pre-monsoon showers is not clear right now. However, current forecasts do not suggest any possibility of pre-monsoon showers in the region until at least 4 June.” Their intensity and effect on temperature are still a while away to predict.

These conditions come on the heels of a slightly delayed monsoon onset in the country. The IMD has predicted the season will hit the shores of Kerala on June 4, give or take four days, compared to the normal date of June 1. Skymet Weather Services has put the date even further to June 7, with an error margin of three days.

“There are some criteria that have to occur before we can declare the onset of monsoon,” says Palawat. These include: 60% of 14 weather stations in Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka record a minimum rainfall of 2.5 mm on two consecutive days; Westerly wind speeds of 600 knots at Westerly at 15,000 feet above mean sea level; Westerly winds at the surface at speeds between 15 to 20 knots; outgoing long wave radiation less than 200.

Some weather conditions are currently impeding the monsoon current, including Cyclone Fabien currently raging in the Indian Ocean and an anticyclone over the Arabian sea.

The slightly delayed monsoon, however, does not indicate the slow progress of monsoon and eventual landing in Mumbai. “The exact date is not clear right now,” said Deoras, “but there are no reasons to expect the monsoon before 10 June.” The IMD prescribes a normal date of arrival in Mumbai between June 10 and 12.

“Current forecasts also suggest subdued rainfall activity in the region in the first fortnight of June,” he added.