Ghaziabad: As Mayawati steps in with rally, triangular contest on the cards

BSP’s role in the present election is vital, as experts opine that it has made the contest tri-cornered on majority of the seats in western Uttar Pradesh

Ghaziabad: With the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati set to hold an election rally in Ghaziabad’s Kavi Nagar Ramlila Ground on Sunday, experts view that the move will now make it a triangular contest among the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress/Samajwadi Party, and the BSP here.

The ECI figures in 2004, 2009 and 2014 indicate that the BSP more or less was able to secure its vote bank in terms of numbers but its proportion gradually decreased with a rise in the number of electors in Ghaziabad. (Sakib Ali/HT Photo)

The BSP has fielded a Thakur candidate -- Thakur Nandkishor Pundhir, a native of Muzaffarnagar and resident of Dhaulana. The district will go to polls on April 26.

According to BSP’s district president Dayaram Sain, during Sunday’s rally, their party chief (Mayawati) is set to give them clear guidelines and agenda to use for contesting election.

“We have made arrangement for about 5,000 seats and it is expected that the gathering will go up to 30,000 or more. People from Ghaziabad and Baghpat will attend the rally,” he said.

On April 7, the BSP brought in Mayawati’s kin Akash Anand, who held an election rally in Ghaziabad’s Arthala. He is also the national coordinator of the BSP.

According to experts, the BSP’s role in the present election is vital. They feel it has made the contest tri-cornered on majority of the seats in western Uttar Pradesh.

“If we analyse closely, the BSP has been able to maintain its core vote bank till date. It aims to garner anti-BJP votes like those from Muslims and other groups, said KK Sharma, associate professor (history) at Chaudhary Charan Singh University.

“In Ghaziabad, if Thakurs are annoyed with the BJP, the BSP candidate may get many of these votes. And this means an indirect loss to the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc,” he said.

Even if not very active nowadays, Mayawati has a sound political ground in UP till the time its core vote bank is intact, he said, adding: “With this, the BSP also has a possibility of winning many seats. If this vote bank gets fractured, the other parties may gain.”

“So, rallies by Mayawati are aimed to keep its core vote bank intact and also to garner anti-BJP votes. In her rallies, she primarily tries to target the BJP, so that anti-BJP votes come to her party. So, the BSP is still a key player in UP politics and an addition in her vote bank means indirect loss to INDIA bloc,” Sharma explained.

According to the Election Commission of India (ECI) statistics, Congress won the Ghaziabad parliamentary seat in 2004. But since then, the BJP has won it during the 2009, 2014, and 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Of the total 2,728,978 electors in Ghaziabad in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 1,524,456 votes were polled. Of these, Suresh Bansal of the Samajwadi Party/Bahujan Samaj Party alliance secured 443,003 votes. This was about 29.05 per cent of the total votes polled in the constituency.

The equation was a bit different in 2014. Of the 2,357,553 electors, 1,342,321 votes were polled. Of these, Mukul from the BSP could secure only 173,085 votes. This was about 12.89 per cent of the polled votes.

The BSP secured almost similar votes in 2009 election when its candidate Amarpal Sharma secured 180,285 votes. But the BJP won the seat. There were a total 1,831,688 electors in 2009 and 829,823 votes were polled.

In 2004, the BSP candidate Kunwar Ayyub Ali secured 180,063 votes. But it was won by a Congress candidate. The seat then was known as Ghaziabad/Hapur parliamentary constituency. Then, a total of 799,736 votes were polled.

The ECI figures in 2004, 2009 and 2014 indicate that the BSP more or less was able to secure its vote bank in terms of numbers. But its proportion gradually decreased with a rise in the number of electors in Ghaziabad.

“Her (Mayawati) coming to Ghaziabad will consolidate our core vote bank and we are expecting support from Dalits, Thakurs and Muslims besides votes from other communities as well,” said BSP district president Sain.

“So, we expect that our candidate has the best chance of winning this election. We have a contest with no other candidate and we will comfortably secure a win. And it is wrong to say that our campaigns indirectly benefit the BJP,” he added.

Eight of the total 80 seats in UP which went to polls on Friday during phase-1 comprised Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur, and Pilibhit.

In 2019, the BJP and the BSP each bagged three while SP won two of these Lok Sabha seats.