Maha to experience below-normal rainfall in August

While the monsoon appears to have weakened, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted below-normal to normal rainfall in most areas of Maharashtra including Pune city for the month of August

While the monsoon appears to have weakened, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted below-normal to normal rainfall in most areas of Maharashtra including Pune city for the month of August. Maximum temperature, too, is expected to be higher than normal in August.

Pune city has been experiencing a reduction in rainfall over the last two days. (HT PHOTO)

According to the monthly forecast outlook for rainfall and temperature issued by the IMD on Monday, rainfall over the country as a whole in August is very likely to be below normal or less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA). Most of the districts in Maharashtra will experience below-normal rain, including the Konkan and Marathwada regions. While the Vidarbha sub-division is likely to experience above-normal rainfall in some districts. There is uncertainty regarding rainfall in some areas of Madhya Maharashtra as local climatic conditions will play a significant role. However, Satara and Sangli and parts of Pune district are likely to experience normal rainfall in August.

Currently, there are weak El Niño conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting Systems) and other climate models indicate that the El Niño conditions are likely to intensify further, and continue up to early next year. At present, neutral IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate model forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the remaining part of the monsoon season. As there is an El Niño impact, the monsoon is entering a ‘break phase’ wherein rainfall activity will reduce significantly, said an IMD official.

Meanwhile, Pune city has been experiencing a reduction in rainfall over the last two days. Weather experts said that this period is going to continue till August 10. Vineet Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), said that Pune city will experience 2 to 4 mm of rainfall every day till August 2 after which, there will be no rain for a few days.

As per IMD data, Pune district experienced 412.8 mm rainfall between July 1 and 31 which is at least 33% higher than actual rainfall for the same period. However, the cumulative rainfall deficit for Pune city is still on the higher side (more than 80 mm) as per data provided by the IMD.