Raja Shivaji box office prediction: Riteish Deshmukh film to set Marathi all-time record, but won't get close to Chhaava

Raja Shivaji is expected to take the all-time best opening in Marathi cinema despite little support from its Hindi dub.

The Marathi historical actioner, Raja Shivaji, is set for a blockbuster start at the box office. Directed by and starring Riteish Deshmukh in the lead, the film chronicles the reign of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and his battles with Mughal emperor Aurangzeb. Early trends indicate that Raja Shivaji is set to take the strongest start for any Marathi film in history, but won’t quite reach the level of Hindi films based on Marathi history, such as Tanhaji and Chhaava.

Riteish Deshmukh will be seen in and as Raja Shivaji.

Raja Shivaji advance booking trends

Raja Shivaji has been performing exceptionally well in advance bookings for its opening weekend. As of 2 PM on Thursday, with less than 15 hours to go before bookings close, the film has sold 1 lakh tickets for its opening day alone. As per Sacnilk, Raja Shivaji has already grossed ₹2.5 crore in advance bookings, including a promising ₹20 lakh for the Hindi version. This is already the best advance booking collection for any Marathi film in history. The film is currently selling 5K tickets per hour on the BookMyShow platform, which means the final figure could exceed ₹3 crore by Friday.

Raja Shivaji box office prediction

Buoyed by a strong buzz for a large-scale Chhatrapati Shivaji biopic as well as the strong cast of the film, Raja Shivaji is expected to break all box-office records in Marathi cinema with its opening. According to trade insiders, Raja Shivaji is looking at net collections of ₹6-7 crore in Marathi alone on its opening day. The Hindi version is not expected to do as well, but should contribute more than ₹1 crore on the day, largely from Maharashtra. 90% of the film’s advance bookings have come from the state, and that is where the eventual box office gross will be concentrated as well. The film is looking at an opening-day net collection of ₹8-9 crore in India, with a chance of crossing ₹10 crore.

The existing record for the highest opening-day collection for a Marathi film is the ₹4.2 crore collected by Nagraj Manjule’s path-breaking film Sairat in 2016. Even after accounting for inflation, Raja Shivaji is faring better. The film will easily obliterate Riteish's record in Marathi cinema. His 2022 film Ved had opened to ₹3.5 crore.

However, comparisons with Hindi films based on Maratha history are unwarranted. Ever since the trailer of Raja Shivaji was unveiled, it has been compared with Vicky Kaushal-starrer Chhaava and Ajay Devgn’s Tanhaji. The former opened at a stellar ₹30 crore last year, while the latter had a day 1 haul of ₹15 crore just before the pandemic.

All about Raja Shivaji

A three-hour epic, Raja Shivaji, is co-written and directed by Riteish Deshmukh and also stars him in the titular role. The film boasts a strong ensemble cast, including Sanjay Dutt, Abhishek Bachchan, Mahesh Manjrekar, Sachin Khedekar, Bhagyashree, Fardeen Khan, Jitendra Joshi, Amole Gupte, and Genelia Deshmukh. Salman Khan has a cameo in the film. Produced by Mumbai Film Company and Jio Studios, Raja Shivaji releases in theatres on May 1.