Covid-19 cases doubling every four days in Gurugram

As the city continues to register a record spike in the number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases, data shows that new cases are doubling after every four days.

As the city continues to register a record spike in the number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases, data shows that new cases are doubling after every four days. For the first time in the last three months, cases are multiplying at such a fast rate, highlighting the speed at which the virus is being transmitted in the community.

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Previously, in the first week of May, the highest doubling rate of seven days was reported. Doubling rate is a parameter to estimate the number of days that will be taken for the total number of cases to double. If cases are multiplying within a fewer number of days, then there is an increase in the doubling rate.

A state health department official, privy to the matter, admitted that cases are growing in Gurugram, leading to an increased doubling rate. However, he refused to comment on the issue further.

Lalit Kant, scientist and former head of epidemiology and communicable diseases, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said, “The doubling rate should not be in a single digit. It indicates the infection is spreading at a faster rate than before. Therefore, testing needs to be increased and quarantining facilities need to be expanded. Special focus should be placed on protecting the elderly and those with co-morbid conditions as more and more asymptomatic people are out on the streets.”

In April, the doubling rate was 18 days, when the tally was at 60. It further slowed down to 36 days in the last week of April. But with state government’s testing strategy focusing on high-risk population groups, such as vegetable sellers or workers in the wholesale markets, cases rapidly increased in the city, bring down the doubling rate to 7.2 days.

Data shows there was a slight improvement in the doubling rate from May 15 till May 29. During these weeks, cases were multiplying after every 17 and 13 days. With over 675 cases reported between May 29 and June 3, the doubling rate has now come down to four days.

Calculating the doubling rate is a dynamic process, where the average of cases reported in the last seven days are being taken. It can be calculated every day, but also every three days and five days. But as per the ICMR guidelines, the Haryana health department has been using a mathematical calculation called Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) to decipher the doubling rate.

Rajib Dasgupta, professor, community health, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), said, that the doubling time cannot be read directly by comparing cumulative cases. “It needs to be computed on the basis of 4-6 days of moving average, using a logarithmic scale. The doubling time is the length of time required to double the number of confirmed cases, assuming nothing else changes. Changes can include a substantial increase in the testing (particularly in high-risk groups) or re-categorisation across districts or states (as in the National Capital Region).”

A district health official, who preferred anonymity, said that more people are getting tested, therefore, there has been a surge in the number of asymptomatic cases. “Nearly 80% of cases do not have any signs or symptoms. The number of cases will continue to rise in June and July until we reach a peak,” said the health official.

In the last one week, the surge has also been due to the poor reporting of cases by private laboratories, health department officials said. According to Dasgupta, such a data should be recategorised either by weeks when the sample was collected and tested or can be put under a separate pool of cases. Instead of merging with the fresh cases reported in a particular district.

According to the state health department, labs in Delhi, which are taking Covid-19 samples of Haryana residents, are not sharing reports properly with the authorities concerned, resulting in a delay in contact tracing and surveillance activities, besides creating a mismatch between the information provided on the website of ICMR and that on the state portal. They have issued notices to 18 private labs of Delhi, approved by the ICMR for doing Covid-19 testing in the national Capital, for taking the samples of Haryana patients without keeping the Haryana health department in the loop. This has led to Covid-19 data inaccuracies in Haryana, especially in Gurugram.