Fewer than 100 Covid-19 cases in Gurugram for third consecutive day

With just 71 cases of Covid-19 reported on Sunday, the number of new daily infections in the district fell to its lowest since August 15, when the district had reported

With just 71 cases of Covid-19 reported on Sunday, the number of new daily infections in the district fell to its lowest since August 15, when the district had reported 77 new infections. The ongoing slowdown in the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus is now well into its sixth week, with a continued reduction in mortality, test positivity rate and hospital bed occupancy.

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Sunday also marked the third consecutive day that Gurugram recorded fewer than 100 new cases of Covid-19 for the first time since early August. Over the last seven days, up to December 27, the district reported 566 new infections, it’s lowest seven-day aggregate in at least six weeks. Sunday was also the ninth consecutive day when new daily recoveries outweighed new daily positives.

As a result, the occupancy rate of beds reserved for Covid-19 has also fallen to a four-month low. Only 62 of 369 ICU beds are currently occupied, while only 16 of 253 ventilators are in use. This is down from the maximum occupancy rate of 70%, reported at the height of the third wave of infections, in mid-November. The recovery rate in Gurugram has also gone up a notch, from 96.7%in the week ending December 20, to 97.2% as of Sunday.

While the mortality rate remains unchanged, at 0.61%, the death rate (or ratio of new deaths to new positives) has continued to fall in Gurugram, with just two deaths reported over the past seven days, an improvement from the rate of one death per day the week prior, and nearly five deaths per day in late November.

Officials said they are unsure why this deceleration has occurred, but cautiously suggested that widespread population immunity may be the driving factor. “However, as we know from our experience with the past two waves, which peaked in June and November, a slowdown does not mean that there will not be another resurgence in cases. Each subsequent wave is also more intense than the last. We are continuing to monitor the situation weekly,” said Dr Jai Prakash Sharma, district surveillance officer, Gurugram.

Sharma pointed out that even in past waves, when new cases began to slow down, positivity rates were never as low as they currently are. The weekly test-positivity rate — the ratio of new positives to new samples tested — over the past seven days was 2.2%, down from 3.5% the week prior, even as testing decreased.

“When the viral spread is high, positivity rates should go up with a decline in tests, but the opposite has been happening. This indicates that the circulation of the SARS-Cov-2 virus among the community has slowed down significantly. There may still be some immunity gaps in the population, which could trigger another wave as they get exposed to the virus,” said Sharma, adding that the claims need to be supported by evidence and serological surveys.

The total number of active patients in the district stands at 1,059, down from 1,512 a week ago. Of these, 974 are currently under home isolation, while 82 are in hospitals. Another three active patients are under observation at district Covid care centres.