Recovery rate remains neck and neck with growth of new positives; situation under control, says health department

Over the past week, Gurugram has witnessed a discernible rise in the number of active cases -- for the first time since flattening early this month. From 1,029 cases

Over the past week, Gurugram has witnessed a discernible rise in the number of active cases -- for the first time since flattening early this month. From 1,029 cases on July 19, Gurugram’s tally of active patients grew by 10 percent, touching 1133 cases on July 25.

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With Sunday’s 170 recoveries outweighing the day’s 121 new positives, however, Gurugram’s recovery rate has ensured that the district has just 1,084 active cases.

District health department data going back three weeks show that Gurugram’s daily recovery and growth rates have been neck and neck, a trend which officials cited as favourable. While active cases grew by 10 percent over the past week, the total tally of patients who recovered from Covid-19 grew by 12 percent, from 6,603 patients discharged on July 19 to 7,408 on July 26.

Health department officials also pointed out that the share of active cases to Gurugram’s total caseload has remained stable. “In early July, active cases were about a quarter of total infections. This came down to about 13 percent in mid-July, and is still around 13 percent only,” said Dr Jai Prakash Sharma, Integrated Disease Surveillance Program’s district surveillance officer in Gurugram.

Officials also said that the uptick in active cases, until Saturday, was comprised largely of asymptomatic patients who have been put under home isolation. “While growth of active cases can put more pressure on the healthcare system, we are getting mostly mild cases who are capable of recovering at home. Enforcing home isolation strictly has been central to our response and its success,” said Dr Virender Yadav, chief medical officer, Gurugram.

Yadav added that the district’s recovery rate on May 31 was just 36.7 percent. “When we began focusing on home isolation as a strategic intervention, the recovery rate rose to 64 percent at the end of June, and is now close to 85 percent,” he said. However, challenges in enforcement still persist. A doctor with the district health department, on the condition of anonymity, revealed that complaints about patients violating home isolation rules are frequently received. “In at least four cases, where the violations were very blatant, FIRs have also been filed and the persons booked under the Epidemic Diseases Act,” the official said.

District health department data, meanwhile also showed a slight increase in the number of hospitalised patients over the past week. From 98 who were hospitalised on July 19, there were 128 patients hospitalised across Gurugram till Saturday. It then fell to 116 cases the next day. “Not only is the recovery rate climbing, the percentage of positive cases that end up requiring tertiary care has remained stable, at between 9 and 10 percent, throughout July. We are in control of the situation,” Sharma said.

When asked whether it would be possible to slow the district’s current daily average growth rate — about 1.7 percent at present — even further, deputy commissioner Amit Khatri said, “That will depend on community participation as much as our interventions. In theory, yes, we could perform even better at containing the virus, reducing active cases, increasing the doubling rate and so on. But there are challenges to on ground interventions which mathematical models don’t capture. Our approach is to respond to the situation as it arises, and if cases surge we will take necessary steps.”