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Russia-Ukraine peace plan: Why the war continues even after 3 years and the sticking issues blocking the final deal
Several "thorny issues" continue to block a final agreement.
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has claimed that on Sunday December 28 night, Ukraine had launched an attack on President Vladimir Putin's state residence in Russia's northwestern Novgorod region using 91 drones. Lavrov said all of the 91 drones were intercepted and destroyed by Russian air defence systems. Zelensky dismissed the claim as "typical Russian lies", intended to give the Kremlin an excuse to continue attacks on Ukraine. He said that Russia had previously targeted government buildings in Kyiv, and warned that its latest claim could signal further strikes on Ukraine. It is not yet clear where Putin was at the time of the alleged attack, but Russia has said it would now review its position in peace negotiations.
While the Russia-Ukraine war approaches its four-year mark, diplomatic efforts to end it have so far failed to produce any tangible results. The conflict has settled into a prolonged war of attrition with complex military, political, and historical factors preventing a resolution. Russia demands that Ukraine give up occupied territories and renounce its aspirations to join NATO, while Ukraine insists on the full restoration of its territorial integrity (including Crimea) and has stated that it will not accept limits on its sovereignty or right to self-defence. Neither side has achieved a decisive military victory, leading to a strategic deadlock.
Talks between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Florida took place on December 28, 2025, with both leaders reporting significant progress and claiming that a 20-point peace plan is roughly 90–95% complete. Unfortunately, the 5-10% still remaining incomplete includes getting President Putin to agree to the plan, which is not going to be easy at all.
Several "thorny issues" continue to block a final agreement. Territorial control remains the toughest hurdle. Russia occupies approximately 19.2% of Ukraine (roughly 116,000 sq. km). President Putin maintains that Ukraine must pull back from all four regions he annexed in 2022 (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) and formally recognise them as Russian. Zelenskyy continues to reject any deal that rewards Russian aggression or legitimises the occupation of land where over 300,000 Ukrainians still live. Moreover, Zelenskyy has stated that he cannot unilaterally cede land. He asserts that any decision regarding territorial concessions would require a national referendum, as Ukraine's constitution prohibits handing over territory through a simple parliamentary vote.
Control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, Europe's largest nuclear facility, currently occupied by Russia, is also a major sticking point. In March 2022, Russian forces had advanced into southeastern Ukraine and reached the town of Enerhodar, where the plant is located. Thus, the facility is now under Russian military control. Ukraine maintains that the plant is sovereign territory under illegal occupation and continues to demand its return as a "red line" in peace negotiations. Recent peace proposals in late 2025 have explored options for joint trilateral or bilateral management of the facility.
Security guarantees for Ukraine are also a major hurdle in peace talks. Zelensky insists on robust guarantees, fearing renewed Russian aggression without them, viewing them as essential for true security beyond a ceasefire. He is seeking legally binding, NATO-style commitments for long-term defence. Ukraine pushes for decades-long commitments (e.g., 50 years), while offers so far have been shorter (e.g., 15 years from the US) thus creating disagreement.
Moscow refuses to accept strong security guarantees that could involve foreign troops or defence pacts, seeing them as violating its interests and effectively blocking Ukraine's NATO aspirations. Any deal requires Russia's consent, and Putin is unwilling to accept terms that strengthen Ukraine militarily, making serious guarantees a contradiction in the current framework. Moreover, Ukraine pushes for decades-long commitments (e.g., 50 years), while offers so far have been shorter (e.g., 15 years from the US) thus creating disagreement.
While diplomatic efforts to reach a peace settlement have intensified, active combat, heavy shelling, and long-range drone strikes persist across the front lines and deep into both countries. Both Kyiv and Moscow have stepped up their drone and missile attacks. On December 23, 2025, Russia reportedly launched 673 aerial attacks, launching over 635 drones and 38 missiles. The strikes primarily targeted the Ukrainian energy grid and port infrastructure, particularly in Odessa, causing emergency power outages for hundreds of thousands of people. Ukraine claimed shooting down 621 of them, including almost all the cruise missiles.
Russian forces reportedly continued attacks on Christmas Day, including heavy shelling of a food market in Kherson and drone strikes on residential buildings in Chernihiv. Russian forces captured the strategic "fortress" town of Siversk in the Donetsk region after heavy fighting and have maintained a slow but steady advance toward the "fortress belt" cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Russia currently occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory.
Russia also launched an aerial assault of approximately 500 drones and 40 missiles on Kyiv on the night of December 26-27, 2025, continuing into the morning of December 27. This massive strike was one of the largest of the war and primarily targeted Kyiv's energy and civilian infrastructure, causing widespread power outages and casualties. Ukrainian authorities reported that one person was killed and at least 30 were injured in the capital and surrounding regions.
Ukraine, too, continues to target Russian energy and military infrastructure. On December 24, 2025, a Ukrainian drone reportedly hit a petrochemical plant in Stavropol, southern Russia, sparking a large fire. Next day, Ukraine launched British Storm Shadow missiles and its domestically produced long-range drones to strike the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov region. The refinery was one of the biggest oil product suppliers in southern Russia and was supplying diesel and jet fuel to the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. Ukraine also said that its troops had hit a military airfield in the Russian city of Maikop in the republic of Adygea in the North Caucasus region.
Thus, both Russia and Ukraine have transitioned to a "war of attrition" strategy, each aggressively attempting to exhaust the other's financial, industrial, and human resources to force a favourable peace settlement. Russia seeks to bankrupt Ukraine by destroying its capacity to function as a modern state, forcing reliance on increasingly strained western aid, while Ukraine's objective is to make the war too expensive for Russia to sustain by targeting its economic lifeblood and technological edge.
President Putin's rule is tied to a perceived victory in the conflict, making retreat or defeat a significant political risk for him personally. Russia has adapted its economy to the war effort, while Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience with western support. Ceding territory is politically and militarily unacceptable for Ukraine, as it could put Russia in a better position to restart an invasion later.
Summing up, diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict are at their most intensive stage since the full-scale invasion began, though a final breakthrough remains elusive. The chances for a near-term resolution are not bright. There has been "slow but steady progress" in talks but significant deadlocks persist on core territorial and security issues. The prospects for a lasting end to the Russia-Ukraine war remain uncertain, characterised by intense US-led diplomatic pressure but persistent, fundamental disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv. Going by the current state of play, a decisive outcome on the battlefield, or an escalation in the costs of continuing the fighting for one or both sides, will likely be necessary before a resolution can be found.
This article is authored by Prabhu Dayal, former ambassador, New Delhi.
