The Free Balochistan Movement's vision
This article is Soumya Awasthi, fellow, Centre for Security Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
The recent Jaffar Express train hijacking by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) marks a significant escalation in the ongoing Baloch insurgency, reflecting a shift towards high-profile attacks against state infrastructure. The BLA, a separatist militant group fighting for an independent Balochistan, claimed responsibility for the attack, taking hostages and threatening executions in a bold defiance of Pakistan’s authority. This incident underscores the broader implications of Baloch resistance, extending beyond Pakistan and into Iran, where the Free Balochistan Movement (FBM) is actively advocating for self-determination. The growing convergence of these movements signals a deepening regional crisis with far-reaching geopolitical consequences. The FBM led by Hyrbyair Marri, developed the Democratic Transitional Plan for Iran to address the longstanding marginalisation and oppression of non-Persian ethnic groups within Iran. In August 2024, the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights reported that the government's ongoing crackdown has disproportionately impacted ethnic minorities in Iran. Additionally, in November 2024, Human Rights Watch highlighted that the Iranian authorities are using executions as a tool of fear, mainly directed at ethnic minorities, dissidents, and foreign nationals. These developments highlight the critical need for a comprehensive and democratic approach to address the grievances of Iran's diverse ethnic populations, as proposed by the FBM's transitional plan.
This initiative seeks to provide a structured pathway toward self-determination and democratic governance for these communities. The plan opens by highlighting the precarious state of the Iranian regime, which faces mounting resistance from both Persian and non-Persian populations. Armed movements in regions like Kurdistan and Balochistan seek independence, but the government's fall alone will not resolve deeper systemic issues. Instead, the plan emphasises the necessity of a democratic framework to address historical injustices, avoid internal conflicts, and create a lasting resolution for all nations within Iran.
Modern Iran, often equated with Persia, is a geopolitical construct born of imperial ambitions and colonial strategies. Its current boundaries encompass a mosaic of ethnic groups, including Persians, Balochs, Kurds, Turks, and Arabs. Although Iranian and Persian are used interchangeably in western contexts, the nation's ethnic and linguistic diversity reflects a more complex reality.
Historically, Persian empires ruled vast territories until the Arab conquest. Later, Iran saw governance by non-Persian dynasties until the early 20th century, when Reza Pahlavi centralised power with British support. His policies of Persian nationalism and centralisation suppressed the autonomy of non-Persian nations, sowing the seeds of unrest that continue to challenge Iran's internal cohesion today. The FBM Democratic Transitional Plan for Iran addresses Iran's internal complexities and carries significant geopolitical implications for the broader region. Iran’s strategic location and its historical role as a regional power mean that any political reorganisation within its borders will inevitably reverberate across its neighbours, including Pakistan.
Iran has long been a key player in shaping regional dynamics. With vast natural resources and a central position in West Asia, it has long been a critical player in regional dynamics. However, its current theocratic regime has fostered tensions with several neighbours, primarily due to its ideological ambitions and suppression of ethnic minorities. Should the FBM’s plan succeed in introducing a democratic framework, it could serve as a stabilising force in the region by curbing Iran’s expansionist policies and fostering cooperative relationships with neighbouring states.
The plan begins by forming a Transitional Council to dismantle the theocratic regime and decentralise authority from Tehran, preparing regions for federalism, confederalism, or independence. Next, Iran's internal boundaries will be redrawn to restore historical territories and establish self-governing national regions, like Balochistan and Kurdistan, with support for building governance and military institutions.
In the third phase, these regions will draft constitutions and hold elections under international oversight, enabling autonomous administrations and resolving local grievances. Finally, referendums will let regions choose independence or union with Persia, shaping Iran’s future governance as federal or confederal. This phased approach provides a peaceful, inclusive roadmap to address internal challenges and stabilise the region geopolitically.
A peaceful and democratic resolution to Iran’s ethnic tensions, as envisioned by the FBM’s plan, could bring both challenges and opportunities for Pakistan. Sharing a long and porous border with Iran, Pakistan’s province of Balochistan—a region historically divided between the two nations—stands to be significantly impacted by any upheaval in its neighbour. The province has long been a focal point of nationalist aspirations, and ideological parallels between Pakistani Baloch nationalists and the FBM could complicate Islamabad’s internal dynamics.
If the FBM’s plan succeeds in Iran, it might inspire Baloch nationalist movements in Pakistan, potentially reigniting calls for greater autonomy or even independence in Pakistani Balochistan. This possibility directly challenges Pakistan’s territorial integrity, especially as it navigates its political and economic crises. Islamabad, wary of such developments, is likely to monitor changes in Iran cautiously, prioritising its national security while assessing the broader implications for regional stability.
On the other hand, a stable and decentralised Iran, as proposed in the FBM’s roadmap, could create avenues for cooperation between the two neighbours. Shared concerns, such as addressing ethnic grievances, fostering economic development, and managing cross-border security, offer potential grounds for collaboration. For instance, Balochistan on both sides of the border faces underdevelopment and unrest, and a coordinated approach to address these issues could lead to mutual economic and social benefits.
Pakistan’s role as a key player in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), mainly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), underscores the importance of stability along its western frontier. A decentralised and democratic Iran could align with these objectives by facilitating smoother trade routes and reducing insurgent threats in the border regions. Such stability would benefit Pakistan and enhance the broader connectivity goals of the BRI, potentially transforming the area into an economic hub.
China has deep economic investments in conjuncture with Pakistan and Iran to safegaurd its ambitious BRI and CPEC. The FBM condemns Chinese stance and its impact on the Baloch people. It accuses the Chinese being supportive of Pakistan’s forced occupation of Balochistan both in terms of military and economically suppressing rights of the local populace. Pakistan granted mining rights on gold, silver and copper at Saindak mine to the Metallaurgical Coerporation of China, in exchange of weapons from China.
FMB is of an opinion that the larger goal of China in Balochistan is to deploy People’s Liberation Army (PLA) personnel to secure its infrastructure projects, which is evident through the joint military exercises of China and Pakistan in the region. Chinese apprehensions in the region is visible from the fact that amidst the resistance movement,Beijing has asserted pressure on Islamabad for ensuring security of its workers, meanwhile Chinese state-owned Power Construction Corporation has suspended projects due to security concerns, highlighting growing unease. However, China remains steadfast in its investments in Pakistan and Balochistan avoiding direct conflict and leaving the responsibility of security on the shoulders of Pakistan.
The FBM holds significant implications for India’s regional security calculus, given Balochistan's geostrategic importance and its role in shaping South Asia’s security landscape. As Pakistan’s largest province, Balochistan borders Iran and Afghanistan, making it vital for regional connectivity, energy flows, and trade routes. The province houses the Gwadar Port, a linchpin of China’s BRI and the CPEC. Any escalation in Baloch separatism could disrupt these projects, indirectly benefiting India by undermining China-Pakistan economic cooperation. However, Pakistan has consistently accused India of backing Baloch separatists, which, if perceived as true, could provoke asymmetric retaliatory actions, including cross-border terrorism against India. Furthermore, the Baloch insurgency overlaps with Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan region, threatening India’s investments in Chabahar Port and its access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Instability in Balochistan could also fuel maritime security threats like piracy and arms trafficking in the Arabian Sea, disrupting India’s energy and trade flows from West Asia. While India occasionally raises Baloch human rights violations to counter Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative, openly supporting separatism could backfire diplomatically. Therefore, India must adopt a calibrated approach, balancing strategic opportunities with regional stability, mindful of the delicate ties with Iran, and the larger ramifications on Afghanistan and Central Asia.
The FBM has significant implications for India’s regional security and strategic interests, particularly due to Balochistan’s geostrategic position and its role in regional connectivity and energy security. While instability in Balochistan could disrupt China-Pakistan economic projects, indirectly serving India’s strategic interests, it also risks escalating tensions with Pakistan, which could respond through asymmetric warfare and cross-border terrorism. Additionally, the overlap of Baloch unrest into Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province could jeopardise India’s investments in Chabahar Port and its connectivity plans with Afghanistan and Central Asia. The evolving situation in Balochistan is also intricately linked to Iran-Pakistan relations and the broader regional and global geopolitical landscape, where competing interests of China, the United States, and key West Asian powers will further shape the contours of stability in South Asia. Therefore, India must adopt a nuanced and balanced approach, leveraging diplomatic tools while avoiding direct involvement that could destabilise the region further.
This article is Soumya Awasthi, fellow, Centre for Security Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
