As BJP wins 3 states & Cong wins Telangana, here's what exit polls had predicted | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
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Assembly election results: As BJP wins 3 states & Cong wins Telangana, here's what exit polls had predicted

Dec 04, 2023 12:02 AM IST

Assembly election results: The victories in the 3 states have given a booster to the BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, scheduled to be held next yea

The Bharatiya Janata Party on Sunday won big in the Hindi heartland, wresting Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from the Congress while comprehensively beating anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress failed to retain its bastions in the three states. However, the grand old party achieved significant success in southern India, wresting Telangana from K Chandrashekar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi.

The victories in the three states have given a booster to the BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha elections which are scheduled to be held next year. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram had gone to polls in what is being called as the semifinal before the 2024 battle, with the results in the north-eastern state to be declared on Monday.

The BJP says 'Modi's charisma' helped it win Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Congress banked on Rahul Gandhi and state chief Revanth Reddy to win Telangana.
The BJP says 'Modi's charisma' helped it win Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Congress banked on Rahul Gandhi and state chief Revanth Reddy to win Telangana.

ALSO READ: What’s BJP win in 3 states mean for 2024 Lok Sabha elections

But are the assembly election results a true reflection of the exit poll predictions that multiple pollsters showed on November 30, the day Telangana voted? Here we break down the comparison between the exit polls and the actual results.

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Madhya Pradesh

The Bharatiya Janata Party has won 154 seats and is leading on 9 others as the counting is underway. Most of the exit polls had predicted a saffron victory in the central state.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll had predicted that the BJP would win 140 to 162 seats and the Congress 68-90. The Republic-Matrize exit poll predictions had showed an edge to the BJP with 118-130 seats, while the Congress would emerge victorious in 97-107 seats.

However, the TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit poll projections had showed that the Congress would win between 111 and 121 seats, while the BJP could secure between 106 and 116 seats.

ALSO READ: 5 factors that helped BJP trounce Cong in Madhya Pradesh

Rajasthan


Since 1993, Rajasthan had been traditionally changing governments every five years. And the desert state continued the tradition again as the Congress failed to encash on the development schemes brought by the Ashok Gehlot dispensation. The BJP has won 115 seats while the Congress has bagged 68 and was leading on one seat.

ALSO READ: On BJP's Rajasthan election win, PM Modi broke this rule reaction

The exit polls had predicted that the BJP was poised to win the state with Congress finishing a close second. Election agency Polstrat had predicted the Congress to win between 90-100 seats while the BJP was shown to win 100-110 seats. The majority mark in Rajasthan is 101.

Chhattisgarh

In the 2018 elections, the Congress had swept the assembly polls in Chhattisgarh and won 65 out of the 90 seats. The saffron rout had left many believe that the BJP would find it difficult to stage a comeback this election.

The exit poll predictions had given Congress an edge in a close contest in the state carved out of Madhya Pradesh, which had also gone to polls. The India Today-Axis My India projections had showed Congress winning 40-50 seats against the BJP getting between 36-46 seats. TV5 News Exit Poll had suggested a comfortable Congress win with 54-66 seats.

But Sunday's results shocked everyone as the BJP dislodged the Congress from power by winning 54 seats, staging a phenomenal comeback. The Congress was reduced to 35 seats.

Telangana

Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao (KCR)'s Bharat Rashtra Samithi released its first candidate list for the assembly elections as early as August. The 70-year-old two-time chief minister, who had spearheaded the movement for a separate Telangana state, was banking on development initiatives like the Rythu Bandhu scheme to steer home once again.

The exit polls had predicted a close contest with some suggesting that KCR's reign could come to an end by the Congress, under whose reign in the Centre, the state was formed in 2014.

But Sunday, some of the pollsters were proven right as the Congress, which fought the election under Revanth Reddy, managed to wrest the state from KCR. The grand old party has won 64 seats against the BRS which has been reduced to 39.

Unveiling 'Elections 2024: The Big Picture', a fresh segment in HT's talk show 'The Interview with Kumkum Chadha', where leaders across the political spectrum discuss the upcoming general elections. Watch Now!

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