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Cases dip in Maharashtra and Mumbai; but curve not sliding yet, say experts
Although the number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases in Maharashtra has witnessed a dip in the past few days, medical experts and Maharashtra government officials,
Although the number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases in Maharashtra has witnessed a dip in the past few days, medical experts and Maharashtra government officials, whom HT spoke with on Friday, said the downward curve of cases in the state is likely to begin only on April 21 or 22.
The state recorded 119 Covid-19 cases on Friday after it had reported 232 and 286 cases on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. There were 352 and 350 cases in the state on Monday and Tuesday.
State health department officials said there are 60% chances of the curve of positive Covid-19 cases dipping after the two 14-day incubation cycles, which began from March 22 when international air traffic was stopped, are completed. “The two cycles of incubation period of infection end on April 20… We expect the beginning of the downward trend from that point. But if the curve moves upwards, it could be alarming and difficult to contain,” said Dr TP Lahane, director, Directorate of Medical Education & Research, adding that the state has not witnessed the community transmission stage yet. “If the number of cases moves upwards after April 21, then it could be called as the commencement of community transmission.”
A health department official, on condition of anonymity, said the trend mostly depends on cases in densely populated areas such as Dharavi, Worli and the slums in Pune. The official said although the containment zones in these areas have been “carefully screened”, certain factors like “the density of population are not in their control”. The official said if the tracing of contacts failed in these areas, it could prove problematic.
In Mumbai, too, there has been a massive drop in the number of cases, with the city reporting 12 cases on Friday as against 177, 140, 216 and 242 on the previous four days.
Medical experts said the sudden dip could be because of the change in the testing policy of Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). As per a new circular issued by BMC, following the instructions of Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), only symptomatic patients along with high-risk patients will be tested.
For those who were in close contact of asymptomatic patients, testing will be done only after five days of them being in contact with an infected person. Before April 14, the BMC was testing all close contacts of a patient for Covid-19.
“Earlier, all the close contacts of a patient were tested, but now, they are being home quarantined. They will be tested between five and 14 days of their quarantine period. So, as the number of tests has decreased, the number of cases will automatically go down,” said Dr Sanjay Pattiwar, a public health expert.
However, the civic body has noticed that due to narrowing down of testing, the cases of false reporting have decreased. “Before implementation of the new rule, around 5% of the total people tested for Covid-19 were found positive. Whereas, now, the positivity rate has gone up by 11%,” said Suresh Kakani, additional commissioner (health), BMC. “In several cases, we have seen that even though a person has tested negative, he/she has turned positive days later. So, we need to give time to the virus to grow.”
Health officials said the mortality rate in the state, too, is expected to drop further and the doubling of positive cases is expected to take longer.
“The mortality rate has come down to 6.05% on Friday from 6.41% on Thursday and 6.84% on Tuesday. We expect a continuous drop as the response time to the infection has improved owing to aggressive testing. The deaths reported earlier were because of delay in admission and treatment and underlying ailments,” said the official.
