E-Paper
Covid-19 peak likely to hit between May and August: AIIMS director
The graph is currently showing an upwards trend, with the total number of Covid-19 positive cases reported in a day having nearly doubled from 1,790 a week ago on April 30 to 3,561 cases on May 7, taking the total number of infected in the country to 52,952 so far.
The coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in India is likely to see its peak between May and August, said Dr Randeep Guleria, director All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in Delhi.
“This is based on several mathematic modelling data that is available on disease progression, depending on whose data you are looking at. Several data experts are at work, but one cannot definitely predict when the disease is going to peak in India because it depends on a number of variables that are dynamic in nature, such as the effect of lockdown and other measures. The peak may vary accordingly, which is why even the same group sometimes comes up with different projections. The current projections give a range between May and August,” said Dr Guleria.
The graph is currently showing an upwards trend, with the total number of Covid-19 positive cases reported in a day having nearly doubled from 1,790 a week ago on April 30 to 3,561 cases on May 7, taking the total number of infected in the country to 52,952 so far. The number of deaths reported from Covid-19 currently is 1,783.
The number of critical Covid-19 cases -- those put on ventilator, needing oxygen support, or undergoing treatment in the intensive care unit -- has also seen significant increase, with 1.1% of the active Covid-19 cases on ventilators, 3.3% on oxygen support and 4.8% patients in ICUs across India as on May 7, according to health ministry data.
The number has shot up significantly in just three days, as on May 4, the Union health minister Harsh Vardhan had announced that the percentage of ventilator patients fluctuated between 0.33 and 0.37%, those needing oxygen support was 1.5% and those undergoing treatment in ICUs was 2.34%.
“Our disease control is the best in the world,” said the health minister.
Dr Guleria agrees. “The number of patients needing ventilator or on ICU beds may have shot up in past few days but the overall number of critically ill patients is still very small. Covid-19 patients in India are largely on oxygen support. It is still within the limits of what we have as far as resources are concerned. Our infrastructure hasn’t been overwhelmed. In fact, far from it,” he said.
As of now, 821 dedicated Covid-19 hospitals, with 1,50,059 beds (1, 32,219 isolation beds and 17,840 ICU beds) and 1,898 dedicated Covid Health Centres, with 1,19,109 beds (1, 09,286 isolation beds and 9,823 ICU beds), along with 7,569 quarantine centres, are now available in the country to manage patients.
