E-Paper
Cyclone Jawad’s storm surge impact to be amplified by spring tide
Jawad is likely to move north-westwards, intensify further and reach west-central Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh – south Odisha coasts by Saturday morning. Thereafter it is likely to recurve north-northeastwards and move along Odisha coast reaching near Puri around Sunday noon.
Cyclone Jawad has formed over westcentral Bay of Bengal on Friday which is likely to touch and move along the Odisha coast on Saturday. Jawad coincides with a new moon night’s spring tide which is likely to amplify the storm surge associated with Jawad.
The deep depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal intensified further into Cyclone Jawad (pronounced as Jowad) on Friday afternoon over westcentral Bengal and lay about 420 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 530 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 650 km south-southwest of Paradip (Odisha).
Jawad is likely to move north-westwards, intensify further and reach west-central Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh – south Odisha coasts by Saturday morning. Thereafter it is likely to recurve north-northeastwards and move along Odisha coast reaching near Puri around Sunday noon. Subsequently it is likely to continue to move north-northeastwards along coastal Odisha towards West Bengal coasts. Jawad’s intensity is likely to increase to a severe cyclone with wind speed of 90 to 100 kmph gusting to 110 for some hours on Saturday.
“Though we are not expecting major intensification of this cyclone, the impact of Jawad may be amplified because of the new moon and spring tide. The storm surge due to Jawad is expected to be .5 to 1 metre but when coinciding with spring tide it can be two to three times higher. Extremely heavy rainfall is also expected. The impact of tidal waves will be higher. Jawad is expected to touch Odisha coast on Saturday and then it will move along the coast,” said Sunitha Devi, in charge of cyclones at IMD.
“Fourth December being a new Moon day, higher astronomical tides of about 2-4 m height are likely along the coast of Odisha & West Bengal,” IMD has warned.
Jawad’s track is unusual for December. Cyclone Burevi had formed last year on December 2 and made landfall in Sri Lanka. “Its not unusual for cyclones to develop in December but normally the track is either towards Tamil Nadu or towards Bangladesh and Myanmar, its very unusual to see a tropical cyclone moving towards Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts in December,” added Devi.
Moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) is likely over south coastal Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh and heavy to very heavy rainfall over north coastal Odisha and adjoining interior districts and also over coastal districts of Gangetic west Bengal on Saturday.
Moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Gangetic West Bengal and north Odisha and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura and heavy rainfall at isolated places over west Bengal.
Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is likely to prevail over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal from Friday evening and gradually increase becoming 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph over northwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal from the evening of Saturday for the subsequent 12 hours.
Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely to commence along & off North Andhra Pradesh – Odisha coasts from the mid-night of Friday and increase gradually becoming 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph from Saturday, for the subsequent 12 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph also likely to commence along & off West Bengal coast from Saturday evening and become Gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph from the morning of Sunday for the subsequent 12 hours.
Sea condition would be High (6 – 9 m wave height) over central Bay of Bengal during next 12 hours and High to very High (9 – 14 m wave height) over west-central & northwest Bay of Bengal from Saturday for the subsequent 24 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough over along & off North Andhra Pradesh – Odisha coast from the midnight of Friday and become High to very High from Saturday afternoon, for the subsequent 12 hours.
