Happy Diwali, but do not lower your guard against Covid-19

Covid-19 cases in India have been falling, more than a billion doses of vaccines have been administered, most studies show the high prevalence of Covid antibodies among people, and high frequency indices on the economy and mobility are looking up

Covid-19 cases in India have been falling, more than a billion doses of vaccines have been administered, most studies show the high prevalence of Covid antibodies among people, and high-frequency indices on the economy and mobility are looking up. On all these counts, this Diwali is a lot better than last year. Yet, two years of experience with the pandemic – researchers estimate November 17, 2019 to be a likely date when the first Covid-19 case was detected in China – and 248 million cases and 5 million (accounted) deaths across the world tell us that it will be dangerous to lower the guard against the viral disease.

People queue outside a shop to buy goods and decorative ornaments on the eve of Diwali. (AFP Photo)

Global cases rising since late October

The seven-day average of daily new cases of Covid-19 in the world has been increasing since October 17. This number was 402,130 on October 17; it was 423,606 on November 2. To be sure, these numbers are significantly lower than the previous peaks of daily new cases in the world. But the increase is still a matter of concern. Russia is seeing a surge. China is seeing a resurgence and is threatening localised lockdowns through the coming winter months. Regions that are experiencing a surge and are reporting at least a thousand cases (apart from the US, where the 7-day average is still a high 74,330) include countries in Europe, South Korea and Vietnam.

Even better vaccinated Europe is witnessing a surge

The biggest change between now and a year ago, as far as the global fight against the pandemic is concerned, has been the availability of vaccines. There is a massive inequality among countries when it comes to vaccination coverage. However, what is really concerning about the recent spike in Covid-19 cases is the fact that even countries with higher vaccination coverage are experiencing a rise in number of Covid-19 cases. For example, the share of population which has been fully vaccinated in Hungary and Germany is 60% and 66%, yet, these countries are at the top of the list in terms of growth in number of daily new cases.

India accounts for only 3% of global cases right now

The seven-day average of India’s contribution to new Covid-19 cases was just 3.12% on November 2. This number has been declining with brief interruptions for 176 days now and is far lower than both peaks of India’s contribution to global cases. In the week ending 11 September 2020, India contributed 34% to global cases (the first peak of India’s share in global cases). In the week ending May 10 this year – the second peak of India’s contribution – the country’s share was 50.5%.

Past Covid-19 surges associated with public events and festivals

While India’s Covid-19 trajectory is on the decline right now, a disruption in this will not be surprising in the festival season. India’s first wave – in terms of 7-day average of cases – peaked on 16 September 2020. This number kept falling until October 31. However, from November 1 (five days after Dussehra) to November 8, the growth rate of cases was positive on six days. From November 19 (five days after Diwali) to November 24, the growth rate was again positive. Cases continued to decline after that until another cocktail of mass gatherings – the Kumbh Mela starting January (despite being officially restricted to April), Holi and the election campaign in four states (the polls were announced on February 26) led to a surge in cases. To be sure, this is also when the Delta variant struck in India. For close to three months -- from February 15 to May 6 -- the growth rate of seven-day average of cases remained positive every day, leading to a second wave peak on May 9 (seven-day average of 391,819 cases) that was four times as big as the first wave peak (average of 93,617 cases).

A middling share of fully vaccinated people means India needs to remain cautious

While India has done a credible job in administering at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine to almost 80% of its adult population, only 36% of adults has been fully vaccinated. European countries with higher shares of fully vaccinated population are experiencing a surge in cases.

The festive season has seen some much-needed momentum in economic activity and mobility levels and sustained efforts are being taken towards normalizing other important activities such as resumption of physical classes in schools and colleges. It will be a travesty if a reversal in the caseload trajectory on account of carelessness were to disrupt the much-awaited normalization of the economy, education and life in general.