Harsh summer with more heatwaves ahead across India, says IMD

The IMD forecasts a brief relief from heat in March, followed by above-normal temperatures and increased heatwave days across much of India until May 2026.

A brief reprieve from the heat is expected in March before above-normal temperatures grip most of the country till May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced in its monthly forecast on Saturday.

IMD forecasts rising heatwave risk across India; March may see temporary relief before above-normal temperatures intensify.

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“During the March to May season 2026, above-normal number of heatwave days are likely over most parts of east and east central India, many parts of southeast Peninsula and some parts of the northwest and west central India during March to May 2026. The normal number of heatwave days is likely over the remaining parts of the country. During March 2026, above-normal heatwave days are likely over isolated regions of Gujarat & Andhra Pradesh. The remaining parts of the country are likely to experience normal heatwave days,” the IMD said in a statement.

“During the March–April–May (MAM) season, the increased likelihood of heatwave conditions may pose significant risks to public health, water resources, power demand, and essential services, particularly affecting vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, outdoor workers, and individuals with pre-existing medical conditions. Elevated temperatures can lead to heat-related illnesses and additional stress on infrastructure and resource management systems. Accordingly, State authorities and district administrations are advised to ensure timely preparedness, including operational readiness of cooling shelters, adequate drinking water supply, and strengthened health surveillance,” the IMD has recommended.

The weather department defines a heatwave when the maximum temperature reaches 45 degrees Celsius in plains or when the daytime temperature exceeds the normal by 4.5 degrees.

“We can say that maximum temperatures are likely to be normal in March over parts of northwest India before hot temperatures set in. We can also expect rainfall over northern plains and clouding in March,” IMD director general M Mohapatra said at a press conference.

Currently, weak La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures remaining below normal across much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. However, the latest forecasts from global models and the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate these conditions are expected to gradually weaken during the upcoming season. “We can expect a transition to ENSO neutral conditions soon and thereafter to El Nino,” said Mohapatra.

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions continue over the Indian Ocean basin. The latest forecast guidance from global models and MMCFS indicates that neutral IOD conditions are expected to persist during the forthcoming season, with no significant positive or negative IOD phase anticipated.

El Niño years typically bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India.

Dry February

According to the weather department, there is a 59.9% rain deficiency from January 1 to February 28 with 54.8% deficiency over northwest India; 89.5% deficiency over east and northeast India; 78.7% deficiency over central India; 2.3% excess over South Peninsula. But, it added, rainfall over India( 4.2 mm) was the third lowest since 1901 and lowest since 2001. Over NW India also, rainfall was the third lowest ( 5.9 mm) was 3rd lowest since 1901 and lowest since 2001. IMD’s long-term data indicates a stark trend of low rainfall in February 2016 onwards.

It was also the third warmest February for northwest India, when mean temperatures are considered and third warmest February for the country when night temperatures are considered. The mean temperature in February over NW India was 27.41 degree C, 1.71 degree C above normal. The average minimum temperature over the country was 14.76 degree C, 0.94 degree C above normal.

Despite extremely dry conditions in February, Mohapatra said likely rain over NW India could bring down temperatures marginally in March or keep them closer to normal.