E-Paper
IMD's below-normal 2026 monsoon forecast threatens agriculture, economy
The last time India saw below-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon was in 2023, although the IMD’s prediction that year was for normal rainfall.
Monsoon rainfall this year will likely be below normal, the Indian weather office said on Monday in its first prediction of below-normal rain in 11 years –– casting a darker cloud over an economy already concerned about growth, farm output and inflation, all collateral damage of the war in West Asia.
The last time India saw below-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon was in 2023, although the India Meteorological Department’s prediction that year was for normal rainfall.
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Monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to be 92% of long period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/-5%, IMD said in its first stage long range forecast for monsoon season on Monday, attributing this to the El Nino phenomenon.
LPA, the average of the 1971-2020 period is 87 cm. IMD defines 96-104% of LPA as normal.
The spatial distribution suggests that the below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.
The weather office’s statsitical model shows that there is a 35% probability of a “deficient” monsoon (< 90%); 31% probability of a “below normal” monsoon (90 to 95%); 27% probability of a “normal” monsoon (96 -104%); 6% probability of an “above normal” monsoon (105-110%) and only 1% probability of “excess” rainfall (> 110%).
The forecast carries significant economic implications. Monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s economy. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a below-par monsoon can dampen rural consumption and push up food prices in a year when the conflict in West Asia threatens to pose a larger threat to energy availability and fertilisers – a critical farm input.
The last time India received “below normal” rain was in 2023, also an El Nino year, when rainfall over the country as a whole during monsoon season was 94% of its long period average (LPA).
El Nino conditions are likely to be established during the monsoon season especially during July, August and September, according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS). Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate models indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop only towards the end of the Southwest monsoon season.
“Overall, we can say that both El Nino onset during monsoon and neutral IOD conditions are likely to impact the monsoon. Hence we are expecting below normal rainfall during the season,” said M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
“But, we expect the impact to be more pronounced during the second half of monsoon. We are not expecting much of an impact of El Nino during June and July,” he added.
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of a natural climate cycle — called ENSO, or El Nino Southern Oscillation — driven by sea-surface temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino, the warmer phase, typically suppresses India’s monsoon and brings weaker rainfall; La Nina, its cooler counterpart, tends to strengthen it.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather, said the El Nino is “likely to be strong”. “As soon as it evolves, it’s likely to gain strength around July-end, August and September. Sea surface temperatures will warm fast over eastern Pacific,” he said, adding that the farming community should be prepared. “It’s best not to grow very water intensive crops. There should be communication of the forecast on a block level.”
M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said below normal during the monsoon season is “almost certain”. “At present, we don’t know which regions are going to experience more deficient rainfall. What is more important for farmers is not only the quantum of rainfall but the onset and timely distribution of rainfall,” he said. "Farmers should closely monitor IMD’s updated monsoon forecast in May and sub-seasonal forecasts issued by IMD every week.”
IMD typically issues a second forecast around the end of May that comprises an update for the seasonal rainfall forecast issued in April along with the probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the four homogenous regions of India (Northwest India, Central India, South Peninsula and Northeast India) and the monsoon core zone (MCZ).
That release will also have quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for June rainfall.
Skymet Weather too , in its forecast last week, predicted that this year’s monsoon rainfall is likely to be below normal at around 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of ±5%. There is a 40% probability of below-normal rainfall — between 90% and 95% of the LPA — and a 30% chance of drought conditions, with rainfall falling below 90% of LPA, according to Skymet’s projections.
