India set the international best practice for driving electrification of buses: ICCT

Drew Kodjak, executive director of International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) shared his insights on transition from fossil-fuelled vehicles to battery-powered EVs

The transition from fossil-fuelled vehicles to battery-powered EVs is a complex process that involves prioritising an auto segment that cuts emissions the most, formulating regulatory frameworks and incentives, ensuring economic viability and a just transition, providing adequate infrastructure to run these zero-emission vehicles, and generating green jobs and propelling economic growth in the process.

Kodjak said India has one of the world’s largest markets and a substantial manufacturing base for motor vehicles. (HT photo)

Drew Kodjak, executive director of non-profit organisation International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), took a sabbatical last year to work in the Biden administration’s White House climate policy office. He shared his insights on this transition in an interview with Hindustan Times. Edited Excerpts:

How fast is the EV transition happening worldwide?

Historically, it’s been Europe, the United States and China (leading the transition). To a lesser extent, but catching up fast, is India.

It’s now well-recognised amongst financial markets and manufacturers in the US that the future will be electric. So, it’s gone from a situation of ‘will this happen’ to a situation of ‘yes, it is happening’. The only question is how fast. It’s an interesting combination of government policy driven by climate change and oil security, and now being taken over by interest in economic development, green industrial transition, and domestic jobs. It is driven not only by altruistic factors but also by nationalistic concerns about industry.

India has one of the world’s largest markets and a substantial manufacturing base for motor vehicles and vehicle components. There’s a fair amount of exports, particularly in vehicle components. So, India stands to lose or gain depending on how well it manages this transition.

India also imports a significant amount of oil. That’s been a longstanding issue, and EVs would address it. India is considering a suite of policies, including updating and expanding FAME — Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India — and supply-side regulations.

How would you rate the electrification of buses in India?

India did a great job. It set the international best practice for driving the electrification of transit buses. First was the standardisation of bus types. This is a challenge because every city wants a different-coloured bus, with various heights and different-sized windows. In the United States, this drives up the cost dramatically. India was very wise in requiring only four different types of buses. Within that, it also required that the manufacturers not only bid the price of the new vehicle but also the ten-year operational cost, because of which the electric buses were the lower cost bids on the contract. It signalled to cities across India that battery electric buses are the way to go if you are interested in lower-cost technology for your buses. It was an eye-opener for the world. I was impressed by Niti Aayog’s creativity and thoughtfulness in that policy. This catapulted Indian electric bus production and market forward.

Electrifying freight should be prioritised because trucks are the most polluting road vehicles. However, the EV transition worldwide is much faster in the car segment.

The US and Europe have finalised regulations requiring medium and heavy-duty vehicles to transition to zero-emission vehicles over time, starting now and continuing until 2035 and 2040.

Regarding fuel consumption from the transportation sector in the US, Europe, and Japan, 75-80% is from passenger cars and 20-25% from trucks. The numbers may have changed slightly from 5-10 years ago. In India, China and Brazil, heavy-duty vehicles account for more than half of the (total) fuel consumption. It’s a big chunk of the emissions. So, if you are interested in dealing with climate change and oil security, trucks make the most sense or more sense in India than in the United States.

Studies show that battery-electric trucks will be significantly cheaper to operate over time than diesel or natural gas trucks. This matters a great deal because these are businesses, not consumers. Most big truck manufacturers recognise that their customers will eventually want electric trucks to be competitive economically. Also, because electric trucks have fewer moving parts – just a battery, an electric motor, and a CPU – they don’t have transmission or engine controls, so they are far less complicated. The maintenance requirements should also be lower, and so is the cost of fuel and maintenance. Ideally, the reliability will increase as well.

That said, it is important to see which segment of heavy-duty vehicles to consider. Urban delivery vehicles have a less demanding duty cycle than long-haul tractor-trailers. They have smaller batteries and a limited range. They can be recharged at night. We’ll see electrification moving from urban delivery vehicles to longer-range tractor-trailers.

The trucking business in India has many problems. Ownership is an issue. Traffic and road conditions are bad. Truck overloading affects fuel efficiency. Will these factors impact the EV transition?

None of these things are necessary to fix before you transition to electric vehicles. In the US, where the roads are in better shape, and trucks move faster, starting in 2010, we improved efficiency with better tyres, aerodynamic retrofits, side skirts, etc. You won’t have those benefits in India because trucks are going slower, and the roads are more congested. However, you will improve efficiency by changing from a diesel engine to an electric vehicle.

How important is it to have a regulatory framework for this transition?

Regulations are essential because this is a very complicated transition. Having the government set the pathway allows many actors—battery manufacturers, mine (industry), and the supply chain—to align with it. The utilities need to know how much power they need to provide and where to upgrade their transmission lines.

I spent a year at the White House helping finalise two major regulations that were completed earlier this year. These regulations will be the cornerstones of the transition in the US and set the pace of change for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles from 2027 to 2032.

And subsidies?

Subsidies are important -- not forever, but until there is cost parity. Subsidies for (buying) vehicles and creating incentives for manufacturing plants so that you have the jobs that come with the transition are also important.

Europe has set targets for electrification of up to 100%. The US has not done that, but it got close. Europe set standards and required each member state to develop a certain amount of electric charging infrastructure for light and heavy-duty vehicles. That’s a relatively good policy. The United States is doing it through incentives.

You have to figure out the best policy package for India that deals with the regulatory standards and supply-side standards that set the pace of the transition. Second, what are the consumer incentives during this transition period so electric vehicles are at the same cost (as EVs), and eventually, the EVs become cheaper? The government doesn’t have to build the infrastructure, but they should guide where it should be built, how to do it, how to standardise the plugs, etc. Also, there’s a need to support manufacturing all EV components in India, including batteries.

Do you think decarbonisation will continue if there is a change in the government in the US?

It is difficult for me to speculate on what another government would do. Donald Trump has been very vocal in his opposition to electric vehicles. But I can tell you that the auto industry is very committed to the targets finalised by the Biden administration—so much so that they joined in favour of the government when other states challenged the government standards.

During the last Trump administration, there was a lot of chaos around the standards. So, it’s not clear to me what will happen with an administration that claims to oppose electrification.

Is there a way of keeping politics out of the decarbonisation agenda?

The industry can always build the vehicles. They don’t need government support or permission to do so. And there’s a tremendous amount of investment there, even when you look at the battery investments in the United States.

Recently, for example, Politico published articles stating that 18 representatives, both in the House and in the Senate, signed to support the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (mandating huge investments in the US economy, energy security, and climate), signalling that they would not support rolling those back, mainly because many of the benefits go across the country. People are seeing the benefits of all the jobs in new industries. The answer is that the more it becomes economically valuable for a broad swathe of the population, the more ingrained it is, and the more difficult it is to roll things back.