In Karnataka battle, exit polls give edge to Congress over BJP, JDS

The BJP is looking to retain its only government in southern India and hold off challenges from the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular)

The Congress is likely to edge ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Karnataka and perhaps even gain a majority of its own in the 224-member assembly, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Wednesday as millions of people across the southern state cast their vote.

Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai, Congress leader DK Shivakumar and JDS HD Kumaraswamy.

The votes will be counted on May 13.

The BJP is looking to retain its only government in southern India and hold off challenges from the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular).

Seven out of eight prominent exit polls predicted that the Congress will finish ahead of the incumbent BJP. Four of these polls also forecast that the Opposition party may even cross the majority mark of 113 on its own, something it has done only once in the past two decades. Three others said that the Congress will emerge as the single-largest party but fall short of the majority mark.

One poll predicted that the BJP will surge ahead of the Congress and gain a simple majority of its own.

To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. But they are useful in identifying trends.

Several exit polls predicted that the BJP might end up with a little less than 100 seats, and the Congress finish just ahead of the majority mark. The two outliers on either end of the spectrum were IndiaToday-AxisMyIndia -- which gave 62-80 seats to the BJP and 122-140 seats for the Congress – and NewsNation-CGS that forecast that the ruling party will get 114 seats and the opposition party 86.

“I stand by my numbers that we will cross 146 seats. People are highly educated and are looking at larger interests because the double engine has failed in Karnataka,” said state Congress unit chief DK Shivakumar.

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“Exit polls are exit polls, they can’t be 100% correct. We are going to get a complete majority and form the government. I think we should wait till May 13,” said chief minister Basavaraj Bommai.

The Janata Dal (Secular) was seen by almost all exit polls as holding on to its strongholds in old Mysuru region but losing out almost everywhere else, including regions it previously registered impressive performances in. Most exit polls predicted that the regional party, which has traditionally played kingmaker and punched above its weight in a state that is known for throwing up fractured verdicts, will end up with a tally in the mid-20s.

”Our party is going to be king,” said former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy.

In 2018, the BJP won 104 seats, the Congress 78 and the JD(S) 37. The two opposition parties came together to form an unlikely coalition government but the administration collapsed in 2019 after a bunch of lawmakers resigned.

Karnataka is important for the BJP because it’s the only southern state under the party’s control and one where the party invested significant resources to beat back challengers. The BJP also tried to effect a generational change by denying tickets to a raft of old-guard leaders, many of whom – such as former chief minister Jagdish Shettar and former deputy chief minister Laxman Savadi – are fighting the polls on rival party nominations.

The state government tweaked the state’s reservation matrix to woo the two dominant communities, Lingayats and Vokkaligas, and subdivided the Scheduled Caste category. The campaign was fronted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi -- who addressed 21 rallies, including a last-minute blitz in Bengaluru with two road shows – and former chief minister BS Yediyurappa, who stepped away in 2021 but is considered the tallest BJP leader in the state with a loyal following among the Lingayats.

For the Congress, the stakes are also high. Two of the three states it runs on its own go to the polls this year, and if it wins Karnataka, it will be its biggest assembly election victory since December 2018. The party ran an equally aggressive but localised campaign centered around allegations of corruption – exemplified by slogans such as “40% sarkara” and “Pay CM”, references to charges that 40% commission needed to be paid to get any work done – and the appeal of former chief minister Siddaramaiah and state unit chief DK Shivakumar. The party also released five guarantees -- including including free electricity, stipends for unemployed young people and women, free rice and free bus rides for women -- as part of its manifesto but its decision to compare the Bajrang Dal to the banned Popular Front of India stoked a row.

The JD(S) largely focussed on retaining its stronghold of Old Mysuru, which comprises 52 seats, and safeguarding its traditional vote base, the Vokkaligas. Its poll promises includes include Matrushree and women empowerment programmes, including loan waiver for women self-help groups and five free cylinders a year besides enhancement of widow pension.