Monsoon likely to revive from today, says IMD

After a hiatus of around 10 days, the monsoon is likely to revive gradually from Thursday onwards and spread across northwest India over the weekend, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said

After a hiatus of around 10 days, the monsoon is likely to revive gradually from Thursday onwards and spread across northwest India over the weekend, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. There has been a 5% deficiency in the rain in the country since June 1. Central India is 7% rain deficient, northwest India 13%, and east and northeast 2%.

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IMD scientists are expecting active monsoon conditions in northwest India around July 16-17 when a low-pressure system is expected to move there. Moist easterly winds in the lower levels from the Bay of Bengal are likely to establish gradually over parts of eastern India from July 8 onwards. They are likely to spread into northwest India covering Punjab and north Haryana by July 10. Accordingly, the southwest monsoon is likely to advance into the remaining parts of west Uttar Pradesh, more parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Delhi around July 10, IMD said in its bulletin on Wednesday.

A deviation in the predicted weather pattern has led to delayed and scanty rainfall in most parts of the country. The subdued monsoon has coincided with the critical period of sowing and paddy transplantation. It is likely to impact agricultural activities such as sowing and transplantation of crops, irrigation scheduling, and power requirements.

A western disturbance is also likely to impact the Western Himalayas and parts of northwest India around July 10. “There will be rain over northwest India on July 10 and 11 and then an active spell of monsoon is likely around July 16. This is because a low-pressure system is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal on July 11 which will travel north-westwards covering central India and move towards Rajasthan. It is likely to bring a lot of rain in its path,” said DS Pai, who heads IMD’s climate research and services. “A western disturbance is also likely to affect the region around July 10, but it may not weaken the monsoon winds. Sometimes monsoon winds interact with westerlies to bring heavy rain.”

RMSI, a global disaster risk management firm, said on Tuesday that the mid-latitude westerly winds and westerly trough approaching northwest India would hold back the rapid monsoon advancement during the next week. So, Delhi and other north-western areas would not get much rain as should normally be the case after the arrival of the monsoon.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather, said western disturbances have been forming one after the other but they are feeble. “The Madden Julian Oscillation (characterised by a band of rain clouds moving across the tropics) is likely to be in the Indian Ocean in the next couple of days which will enhance monsoon flow. So, we do not expect the monsoon to weaken.”

IMD said scattered to widespread rainfall was very likely in Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh from July 8 onwards. Isolated very heavy rainfall was also very likely in Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh on April 8, West Madhya Pradesh on April 11, and East Madhya Pradesh on July 10. IMD said scattered to widespread rainfall was also very likely in northwest India from July 9 onwards. It added isolated heavy rainfall was also very likely in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh from July 9 and in East Rajasthan from July 10 onwards. IMD said due to the strengthening of monsoon over the Arabian Sea and likely formation of a low-pressure area over the west-central Bay of Bengal around July 11, enhanced rainfall activity was very likely along the west coast from July 9 onwards.

Due to the revival of monsoon from July 8, rainfall intensity and distribution is very likely to decrease over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura from July 9 onwards.