Monsoon withdrawal delayed till October 20: IMD
New Delhi: The withdrawal of the monsoon this year is likely to be considerably delayed because of the development of consecutive weather systems that will bring widespread and heavy rain to parts of peninsular and western India. This could also have an adverse impact on the harvest of crops in parts of the country, experts said.
The normal date for the complete withdrawal of the monsoon from the northern parts of the country is October 15, but this time withdrawal will resume again from parts of northwest India after October 20. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the withdrawal line of the monsoon continues to pass along Faizabad, Fatehpur, Nowgong, Rajgarh, Ratlam, Vallabh, Vidyanagar and Porbandar. The winds continue to be predominantly south-westerly, indicating the monsoon is active.
A depression over west-central Bay of Bengal has moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 12 kmph during the past six hours and was centered around 370 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam, 410 km southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) and 450 km east-southeast of Narsapur (Andhra Pradesh).
It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during the next 24 hours and move west-northwestwards and cross the north Andhra Pradesh coast between Narsapur and Vishakhapatnam on Monday night. The system is likely to bring widespread and heavy rain to Andhra Pradesh, Telanagana, Rayalseema, Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Kerala and Karnataka until October 14.
Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal, southwest Bay of Bengal and along and off the Odisha- Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts and over the Gulf of Mannar from October 11 and 12 and over the Gulf of Mannar on October 13. Another low-pressure area is likely to develop over northeast Bay of Bengal around October 14, but IMD hasn’t issued any official warnings on that because there is no consensus yet on forecasts based on various models of weather prediction.
“When the deep depression moves inland, rainfall will be enhanced on October 12. Not just in Andhra Pradesh and Rayalseema, we are expecting rains across the western coast. Monsoon has not withdrawn so the deep depression that has formed has mixed characteristics. The south-westerly winds are still strong. For monsoon to withdraw the wind direction needs to change completely to north-easterly but monsoon hasn’t managed to withdraw due to consecutive weather systems forming in October,” explained Sunitha Devi, in charge of cyclone prediction at IMD.
Remnants of another weather system are likely to approach the Bay of Bengal from the South China Sea around October 14 which could also develop into a depression.
“In fact, the second system could also intensify into a deep depression and is likely to bring widespread rains. Due to these weather systems, the wind regime in northwest India is likely to shift to easterly from north-westerly leading to above normal night temperatures again for about five to six days,” explained Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, at Skymet Weather, a private weather forecaster.
He added that the delay in monsoon’s withdrawal will not just delay the winter’s onset but may cause damage to crops in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.