E-Paper
More investment needed for climate-resilient infra in urban India: World Bank
A World Bank report said India spends about 0.7% of its GDP (2018) on urban infrastructure and services, which is much lower than other countries
Investment for climate-resilient and low-carbon intensive infrastructure in Indian cities, facing a triple threat of flooding, water scarcity, and heat, is well below what is required, a World Bank report released on Tuesday said.
The report titled “Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India” estimated investment requirement of $2.4 trillion by 2050 and $10.9 trillion by 2070. This is based on a conservative scenario of 43% urbanisation by 2050 and 52% 20 years later.
The report said the costs are high and the benefits are higher and added at least 60% of existing cities can be covered by urban flood risk mitigation measures within 15 years, with investments of about $150 billion. It said heat mitigation actions across Indian cities would increase GDP by up to 0.4% and save up to 130,000 lives a year by 2050.
The report said India spends about 0.7% of its GDP (2018) on urban infrastructure and services, which is much lower than other countries. It added that this must be substantially increased from an average capital investment of $10.6 billion per year (from 2011 to 2018).
The report said many cities in India have not been able to spend their capital budgets fully in recent years and need support in increasing implementation capacity. It added that urban pluvial or stormwater flooding-related losses currently cost between 0.5 and 2.5% of GDP annually, amounting to $4 billion per year, more than double over the past two decades. The report said without any remedial actions, annual losses from pluvial flooding are expected to be $5 billion by 2030, and between $14 to $30 billion by 2070.
The report said the exposure of India’s urban population to dangerous levels of heat stress has increased by 71% from 4.3 billion in 1983-1990 to 10.1 billion person-hours per year in 2010-2016 in the country’s 10 largest cities. It warned that if nothing changes, heat-related deaths in Indian cities will double by 2050, and 20% of working hours in major Indian cities could come under high heat stress conditions by 2050.
Remedial opportunities
The report noted that over half of the new infrastructure, buildings, and urban services are yet to be built for the 2050 scenario of 951 million (50% of total population) residents from the 2020 scenario of 480 million (a third of total population). It said Indian cities have a huge opportunity to plan resilient urban development and avoid large future damages and losses from climate and disaster impacts.
The report estimated that between 2022 and 2070, over 144 million urban dwelling units will be needed in India, more than double the existing housing stock to cater for the increased population. It suggested additional and timely climate resilience measures, including risk assessment, planning, and investing in resilient infrastructure and services, including early warning systems, and disaster preparedness with a particular focus on disaster-prone areas and vulnerable populations.
The report highlighted that some remedial measures at the central, state government, and municipal levels are showing encouraging results, and they need to be scaled up. It cited Ahmedabad’s heat action plan and said it has averted 1,200 deaths annually since 2013. Such heat plans are now in 100 cities.
The report said only 10 out of 126 cities assessed under the Climate Smart Cities Assessment Framework as part of Smart Cities Mission conducted flood risk assessments and developed flood management plans.
Recommendations
The report advocated for a dedicated programme of resilient urban development at the levels of state and Centre, including a financing and implementation strategy. “The investment programme can also focus on enhancing institutional capacity and creating incentives to foster collaboration and cooperation among key stakeholders.”
The report called for a 10-point city climate action plan based on the context, population, size, climate, and disaster risk profile, development trajectory, and municipal government capacity. “Enhancing municipal staff numbers and skills will be essential for improving risk data collection and assessment, climate-informed urban planning and budgeting, and execution. Additionally, interjurisdictional approaches need to be adjusted to incentivise and support cities in cooperating beyond their boundaries on critical matters such as flood management, which may require a watershed basin, river basin, or coastal management approach.”
