NDA vote-share in Kerala rises by 4%, comes first in 11 Assembly segments | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
close_game
close_game

NDA vote-share in Kerala rises by 4%, comes first in 11 Assembly segments

By, Kochi
Jun 06, 2024 04:12 AM IST

BJP made history by finally getting a Lok Sabha MP elected from the southern state through Suresh Gopi in Thrissur

An analysis of the Lok Sabha election results in Kerala showed that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was able to improve its vote share in the state at the cost of both Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) coalitions.

Though NDA was able to register victory in only one seat, its vote share grew from 15.64% in 2019 to 19.23% in 2024 (Agency)
Though NDA was able to register victory in only one seat, its vote share grew from 15.64% in 2019 to 19.23% in 2024 (Agency)

In the results declared by the Election Commission on Tuesday, the BJP made history by finally getting a Lok Sabha MP elected from the southern state through Suresh Gopi in Thrissur. At the same time, in a more or less repeat of 2019, the UDF won 18 out of 20 seats leaving the remaining one seat for the LDF.

Though NDA was able to register victory in only one seat, its vote share grew from 15.64% in 2019 to 19.23% in 2024. The BJP contested 16 seats while its ally BDJS fought on four seats. The BJP vote share grew from 13% to 16.68% this year.

Also Read | The three states that dealt the biggest blow to BJP

Comparatively, the LDF, which won one seat and captured 36.29% in 2019, dwindled down to 33.36% and the same number of seats. While it won the Alappuzha constituency in 2019 by just over 10,000 votes, this time, it won the Alathur (SC-reserved) constituency by a margin of 20,111 votes.

As for the UDF, it had a superior strike rate compared to the other two fronts and captured a majority of the seats like in 2019. But the UDF’s popular vote share also dropped like the LDF, from 47.48% in 2019 to 45.21% in 2024. In Thrissur constituency, where BJP emerged as the winner, the UDF was pushed to third position, losing 9% of the popular vote.

The UDF’s phenomenal win indicates that it rode on the sentiments of anti-incumbency against the Pinarayi Vijayan government at the state level and the Modi government at the national level, said J Prabhash, a former professor of political science at Kerala University.

He said: “It was a double negative against Pinarayi and Modi. As you know, two negatives make a positive which fell in favour of the UDF. There are also signs of a minority consolidation in favour of the UDF across the state like in 2019. While Muslims and Christians supported the UDF everywhere, except in Thrissur, a section of the Hindus, who have traditionally voted for the CPM, went toward BJP this time.”

Also Read | Southern India remains BJP’s Achilles’ heel

“The CPM’s excessive harping of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the wooing of minority also turned to be counter-productive and led to a backlash against it. Right now, the LDF government is controlling the party while it should be ideally vice-versa. That has not happened so far,” he said.

The BJP’s step-by-step growth in the state is accentuated by the fact that the party was able to come first in 11 assembly segments in the Lok Sabha elections this year, pushing aside the challenge raised by both LDF and UDF.

The leads in 11 segments compares to just one in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, zero in the 2021 assembly elections and one in the 2016 assembly elections. It is important to note that people vote differently in assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

The 11 assembly segments that the BJP came first in – Kazhakootam, Vattiyoorkavu, Nemom, Attingal, Kattakada, Manalur, Ollur, Puthukkad, Thrissur, Nattika and Iringalakuda – are all located in three Lok Sabha constituencies of Thrissur, Attingal and Thiruvananthapuram. They are considered to be the ‘A-class’ seats of the party. In 2019 elections, the BJP was able to come first only in Nemom segment, also the only assembly constituency it has ever won in the state.

Interestingly, all 11 assembly segments are currently held by the LDF since the 2021 elections. Among them are Ollur, the sitting seat of CPI leader and revenue minister K Rajan, Iringalakuda, whose MLA is the state’s higher education minister and Nemom is held by CPM leader and general education minister V Sivankutty. This shows how impressive the BJP performance in the state was and how it was able to gain leads in assembly segments held by LDF ministers. This time, the LDF was able to gain first position only in 19 assembly segments.

The BJP came to a close second in Thiruvananthapuram constituency where union minister of state Rajeev Chandrasekhar lost in the final rounds of counting to Shashi Tharoor of Congress by just over 16,000 votes. The BJP was able to pull down Tharoor’s margin of 99,989 votes in 2019. The BJP’s vote share also went up by over 4% in the constituency.

In Attingal, where union minister of state for external affairs and former state president V Muraleedharan was the BJP candidate, the party was able to poll 311,779 votes and end up third in a fierce contest with LDF’s V Joy and UDF’s Adoor Prakash.

The BJP’s vote share in the constituency rose from 24.97% in 2019 to 31.64% in 2024. The 60,000 extra votes polled by the BJP made a dent in the vote-banks of both LDF and UDF.

When state president K Surendran contested in 2019 in the backdrop of the Sabarimala protests, he was able to raise the party’s vote share substantially to nearly 29% from 15%. But the candidacy of Anil K Antony, son of retired Congress leader AK Antony, who is new to electoral politics and had no prior connect with the voters in the constituency, is seen to have worked against the party.

In Alappuzha, Palakkad and Alathur, the BJP’s vote share grew by 11%, 3% and 11% respectively.

The party is seen to have made inroads in these constituencies primarily into LDF vote-banks, especially the OBC Hindu Ezhava community which is the mainstay of the CPI(M).

Catch every big hit, every wicket with Crickit, a one stop destination for Live Scores, Match Stats, Infographics & much more. Explore now!

See more

Get Current Updates on India News, Budget 2024, Weather Today along with Latest News and Top Headlines from India and around the world.

SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
SHARE
Story Saved
Live Score
OPEN APP
Saved Articles
Following
My Reads
Sign out
New Delhi 0C
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Start 14 Days Free Trial Subscribe Now
Follow Us On