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India’s Russian oil import declines but no sign it is going to ‘zero’ for now
India is unlikely to halt Russian oil imports, despite reduced volumes amid sanctions. Energy cooperation remains crucial for both nations.
There are no immediate indications of India taking Russian energy purchases to zero despite a recent reduction in the volume of Russian oil inflows in the face of renewed Western sanctions and pressure, and both sides have established mechanisms to deal with such matters, people familiar with the matter said.
Speculation about India cutting down on Russian oil purchases, which accounted for 35% to 40% of oil imports last year, has grown since President Donald Trump, while announcing a trade deal on Monday whereby US tariffs on Indian goods will be cut to 18%, said that the Indian side had “agreed to stop buying Russian oil”.
People familiar with the thinking in Moscow said on condition of anonymity that since India stepped up purchases of Russian oil after the West imposed sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, there have been periods when volumes were affected because of Western sanctions or pressure.
“We have seen several occasions when supplies fluctuated because of sanctions but this was always temporary because both sides have worked out mechanisms to deal with these disruptions,” one of the people said. “These mechanisms are finely tuned and come into play whenever there is any pressure. Russia remains a steady and reliable energy supplier and it wouldn’t make economic sense for India to completely stop purchases.”
The people pointed out that energy cooperation, including civil nuclear collaboration in areas such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and diversification of economic relations were a key part of the agenda for the India-Russia annual summit last November. “There are many proposals that are being looked at, especially in view of India’s growing energy needs,” the person said.
A second person noted that Russian oil itself was not sanctioned – with the US and Western sanctions targeting Russian firms such as Lukoil and state-run Rosneft – and India’s energy needs could be met by other Russian suppliers.
“Things could also change rapidly if the US succeeds in its current efforts to end the war in Ukraine, with the sanctions regimes expected to ease once that happens,” the first person said.
Reuters reported that India imported 1.215 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in January, with the Nayara refinery – jointly owned by Rosneft and an investment consortium – accounting for 0.41 million bpd. The Russian oil imports in January were down by 12% on a daily basis from December, and oil imports in December dropped almost 22% from November. Levels 2 million bpd were witnessed in mid-2025.
“Our base case is that India will largely exit from sanctioned counterparties, but will maintain Russian imports at around 0.8–1.0 million bpd, accounting for 17–21% of total crude imports,” JP Morgan said in a note.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, while responding to a question on Trump’s claim that India had agreed to stop crude purchases from Russia, said New Delhi is free to buy energy from any country, and there is nothing new about its decision to diversify crude suppliers.
“We, along with all other international energy experts, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India. India has always purchased these products from other countries. Therefore, we see nothing new here,” he said.
Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasised the importance of India-Russia energy cooperation for stability on the global markets. “We remain convinced that India’s purchase of Russian hydrocarbons is beneficial to both countries and contributes to maintaining stability in the international energy market. We are ready to continue close cooperation in this area with our partners in India,” she said.
