Normal monsoon rainfall likely in August-September: IMD

Updated on Aug 02, 2022 01:26 AM IST

Parts of eastern and northeastern India, which recorded scanty rainfall in June and July, may not get adequate showers in the next two months as well, the weather office said, raising concerns over the kharif or monsoon crop.

Rainfall up to July 31 was 8% more than normal across the country, India Meteorological Department data showed. (ANI)
Rainfall up to July 31 was 8% more than normal across the country, India Meteorological Department data showed. (ANI)
ByJayashree Nandi, New Delhi

Rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon is likely to be normal, the India Meteorological Department predicted on Monday. In the first half, till July 31, it was 8% above average, although rainfall was highly uneven in different parts of the country, weather office data show.

Parts of eastern and northeastern India, which recorded scanty rainfall in June and July, may not get adequate showers in the next two months as well, the weather office said, raising concerns over the kharif or monsoon crop.

“There is some scope for the high rain deficiency to be recovered in Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and eastern Uttar Pradesh,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD. “But some deficiency may remain for Bihar, some northeastern states and other parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Above normal or excess rains are not expected for the region.”

Rainfall up to July 31 was 8% more than normal across the country, India Meteorological Department data showed. There was 16% rain deficiency over eastern and northeastern India; 17% excess over central India; 28% excess over south peninsula and 5% excess over northwest India so far.

Also read: July ends with 8% excess rainfall but uneven distribution, says IMD

In July, there was 16.9% excess rain over the country with 10.8% excess over northwest India; 42.7% excess over central India; 60.4% excess over peninsular India and 44.7% deficiency over east and northeast India as on July 31. Rainfall was lower by 8% of average in June.

Normal to above normal rain is likely over south India, except parts of the west coast, west-central and northwest India. Below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the west coast, some parts of east-central, east and northeast India in the next two months, the weather office said. The long-period average for August and September based on average rainfall data from 1971 to 2020 is 422.8 mm. The average for the June to September rainy season is 870mm.

Monthly rainfall in August is also likely to be normal, with normal to above normal rainfall likely over most parts of southeast India, northwest India and adjoining west-central India, and below normal rainfall over the west coast and many parts of east-central, east and northeast India.

During August, above normal maximum temperatures are likely over many parts of the east-central, east and northeast India, and some parts of northwest and south interior peninsular India, while normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely over the remaining parts of the country, IMD said.

La Niña conditions are currently prevailing over equatorial Pacific, which is likely to continue till the end of the year. An atmospheric condition called the negative Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop during the rest of monsoon season. But due to supportive factor of La Nina, Mohapatra said it would not have an adverse impact over rainfall.

La Nina, which occurs every two to seven years, is the cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that leads to above average rains and colder winters over South Asia.

In July, the country recorded the highest rain after 2005, with a 17% excess. But east and northeast India recorded the lowest July rains in 122 years at 45% deficiency, according to IMD data. It was deficient by 41.3% in 1903.

Also read: One person dies in Kerala waterfall due to flash flood caused by rains

Highly uneven rainfall so far in the southwest monsoon is impacting the cultivation of paddy and other crops, particularly in the Gangetic plains of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, although they were 8% more than normal across the country since June, HT reported on Monday.

Monsoon rainfall during the four monsoon months between June and September is likely to be normal, IMD had said on May 31. It would then be the fourth consecutive year that monsoon rain will be in the normal or above normal category.

The southwest monsoon, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is crucial to the country’s agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy. It spurs farm produce and improves rural spending.

Monsoon rains are a lifeline for about 60% of the country’s net cultivated area, which has no irrigation. The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation. Ample harvests raise rural incomes and helps inject demand into the economy.

IMD has issued a red category rainfall warning for Kerala and Tamil Nadu for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in view of extremely heavy rain forecast.

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