Number of waves doesn't matter: What experts say on Covid 3rd wave in India

Amid speculations of Covid's 3rd wave, experts have said that the 2nd wave is not yet over and these small spikes may lead to a 'blunted' third wave of the pandemic in the country.
The predicted third wave of Covid is likely to be very different from the 2nd wave in India as vaccination will play a major role in stalling the advent of the wave. (PTI)
The predicted third wave of Covid is likely to be very different from the 2nd wave in India as vaccination will play a major role in stalling the advent of the wave. (PTI)
Published on Aug 04, 2021 10:46 PM IST
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By hindustantimes.com | Written by Poulomi Ghosh

If in any particular area, the number of Covid-19 cases is increasing, it does not matter whether it is the second wave of the pandemic or the third wave as the interventions will be similar, experts said amid ongoing speculations over the 3rd wave of the pandemic which, according to several projections, may hit India in August.

"The wave or cycle is of academic significance only. If cases are rising, it does not matter whether that is a continuation of the second wave or the start of the next wave," Delhi-based physician-epidemiologist and health systems expert Chandrakant Lahariya told PTI.

Researchers of IIT Hyderabad and Kanpur, who had predicted the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, have said the third wave may peak in October. Reacting to this, joint secretary of the Union health ministry Lav Agarwal has said that the second wave is still not over in India as around 40,000 new Covid-19 infections are being recorded every day.

There have been several projections and opinions regarding the third wave in India. Here is all we know:

> Mathematically, the timing of the third wave in India can be predicted and July-August was predicted as the arrival time of the wave while the peak may come in October.

> The ground situation may be different from the mathematical model as the wave will depend on human behaviour and vaccine coverage.

> The impact of the wave will not be the same across the country, as vaccination coverage, exposure to the virus is different.

> The severity of the third wave will not be like that of the second wave. It will be a "blunted" wave compared to the devastating second wave, Scientist Gautam Menon told PTI.

> Several states are witnessing a small spike in Covid-19 cases. But this can't be confirmed as the third wave, experts have opined. This spike can be a result of the lifting of the restrictions soon after the intensity of the second wave lessened.

(With PTI Inputs)

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Thursday, October 28, 2021