Remnants of cyclone may merge with storm in Bay of Bengal
Remnants of Typhoon Yagi, now a tropical depression, may merge with a system near Odisha, potentially intensifying monsoon rains in India.
The remnants of Typhoon Yagi, which devastated Vietnam, are moving towards India. Some forecasting models suggest it could merge with another system currently near Odisha, potentially intensifying the already active monsoon rains.
Yagi, described by meteorologists as the most powerful typhoon to hit northern Vietnam in 30 years, made landfall Saturday with winds exceeding 149 kilometres per hour. It damaged bridges, buildings and factories.
Now weakened to a tropical depression, Yagi continues westward, passing over Myanmar and Bangladesh. Some climate models show its path intersecting with a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal near Odisha, which is also moving west. The cloud-bearing winds of both systems could potentially converge over central India.
Experts are divided on the potential outcomes but are monitoring the situation closely.
“The depression, presently over Odisha, is near central India and the remnant from Yagi may merge with it, resulting only in a low-pressure area. It will not be very intense,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather. He added that this could lead to more rain in North India, where the monsoon “has anyway been active”.
While Palawat noted that remnants from cyclonic storms in the South China Sea often intensify over the Bay of Bengal and sometimes merge with other systems, an expert from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), speaking on condition of anonymity, said “such events don’t generally happen”.
“It will be considered rare if the Yagi remnant remains intense while merging with depression,” the IMD expert added.
M Mohapatra, director general of IMD, emphasised the lack of consensus among climate models. “The systems are far away. They are not close enough to merge,” he said.
Palawat added that it’s unclear whether these developments could delay the monsoon’s withdrawal, although they will certainly keep the season “active” with rainfall spells. A delayed withdrawal could negatively impact farmers, leaving excess moisture in crops during harvest.
The IMD reported that the depression over the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a deep depression. It is expected to cross the Odisha coast and move northwestwards, gradually weakening into a depression before moving west-northwestwards across Chhattisgarh.
Under the influence of these systems, heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is forecast for parts of Odisha, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh over the next two days.
Since June 1, India has received 8% excess rainfall overall, with central India experiencing a 17% excess and the South Peninsula a 26% excess. However, the east and northeast regions have seen a 15% deficiency.
At the end of August, IMD said India is in for a rainier-than-normal September, with heavy to very heavy spells that could hit the northwest region. The agency chief at the time warned of “flash floods, landslides, mudslides, and landslips” in some regions.
The month follows what was a wetter-than-normal August, which received 16% more than the average.
Mohapatra, in a statement then, said models indicated “a low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal each week of the month, which will result in significant rainfall across the country”.