Rising Covid cases pose challenge for Kerala amid third wave threat

Thiruvananthapuram: As threat of a possible third wave looms large in the country, the steady rise in Covid-19 cases in Kerala is posing a big challenge to the overstretched health system while also exposing the “situation under control” claims of the state government

Thiruvananthapuram: As threat of a possible third wave looms large in the country, the steady rise in Covid-19 cases in Kerala is posing a big challenge to the overstretched health system while also exposing the “situation under control” claims of the state government.

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The state reported 22,056 new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, its second consecutive over 20,000-caseload day, at a test positivity rate (TPR) of 11.2%, according to the health department’s daily bulletin. Kerala also reported 131 deaths in last 24 hours, taking the toll to 16,457.

On Tuesday, Kerala accounted for nearly 50% of total caseload on the day in the country (22,129 out of 42,498 cases) and its average test positivity rate (TPR) at 12.35% was almost four times the national average of 3%, according to the health department. In Kerala, which reported the first coronavirus disease case in the country in January last year, the second wave of the pandemic is showing no sign of abating in the last three months.

It is also the only state in the country to report over 20,000 cases in nearly two months, prompting the worried Union health ministry to ask it to ramp up its virus control measures. A team of leaders from the state unit of the Bharaitya Janata Party met Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Wednesday and urged him to prevail upon the state government to take proactive measures to contain the surge.

The intensity of surge can be gauged by comparing Covid-19 numbers with neighbouring states. Tamil Nadu logged 20,421 cases on June 6, the last time any Indian state crossed the 20,000-mark, but on Tuesday, the state reported only 1,767 cases. Another neighbouring state Karnataka, which also witnessed high volume of cases in April-May, reported only 1,501 new cases on Tuesday with a TPR of 1.46%.

According to the Kerala health department data, total cases in the state crossed 3.3 million, second highest after Maharashtra with 6.2 million.

Out of the around 450,000 active cases in the country, the state’s share is 149,000. Worried experts hinted that steady rise in cases is the sign of a possible third wave in the state.

Ground reports also show that things are not rosy for the state with most of vacant Covid beds filling up and demand for ventilators rising. An estimated 14.8 million people above 18 years of age are still waiting for the first dose of vaccine.

The fourth round of the sero survey, conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research, shows 67.7% antibody prevalence nationally while it is way low at 42.7 % in the state. This shows a huge chunk of Kerala’s population is still susceptible to virus, a health expert said.

With high density of population (859 people per sq km), comprising of around 15% of those above 65 years, and high volume of lifestyle diseases (mostly diabetes), the state will have to go an extra mile to change things around, experts said. Experts have also blamed low testing rate, the state’s continued obsession with cheap antigen tests and over dependence on bureaucracy for the stagnant situation.

Kerala was lauded for its pandemic control measures during the first wave, but it turned into a Covid-19 hot spot in the second wave and shows no sign abating in the last three months, with experts calling for a scientific study on low transmission and progression behaviour of the virus.

“The government sniffs politics in every aspect of pandemic. Experts and medical bodies have been kept away deliberately. Ill-flated record won’t stand forever and now it stands exposed,” said Dr SS Lal, a public health expert who worked with World Health Organisation for many years.

“Mere lockdown won’t do any good. It is time for the state to redraw its strategies,” said Dr NM Arun, another public health expert.

Though no shortage of oxygen or Covid beds has been reported in the state, but pressure on overburdened health system is quite visible. Compared to last week, there is a 14% jump in demand for beds and 80% of Covid beds are occupied this week, health ministry statistics show. Out of 30 worst affected districts in the country, 10 are in Kerala, including Malappuram which tops the list with 4,037 cases.

Despite grim picture, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan put up a brave face, saying situation was well under control. “Second wave started late in the state and about 50% of the state population are yet to contract virus. So, we expected this increase,” he said in the state assembly on Tuesday. He also blamed vaccine shortage for delaying the state’s universal inoculation programme.

However, the opposition Congress and BJP blamed the government for the sorry state of affairs.

“Its lies are falling flat. The government fudged data to give a rosy picture but now skeletons are tumbling out of its cupboard. The RTI reply we received shows more than 7,316 fatalities were not accounted for. And its Covid stimulus package turned out to be a big farce,” said senior Congress leader and leader of the opposition in assembly VD Satheesan. He added that the government relegated virus management to bureaucrats and they framed rules and regulations with no thought for human woes.

“We have appraised the Union government and party central leadership about ground situation in the state. The government can’t hide truth for long,” said BJP state president K Surendran.

He alleged that CPI(M) local leaders were controlling vaccination process at many places, something that the ruling party has denied and blamed opposition parties instead “for playing dirty politics” even during the pandemic. “Both Congress and BJP are in same boat, and they are yet to learn a lesson from recent assembly poll debacle,” said CPI(M) acting secretary A Vijayaraghavan.