Second driest Jan for northwest India since 1901, Feb likely to be warmer: IMD

However, the Met department predicts a warmer than usual February could see “above normal” rainfall in the region

​New Delhi: Rainfall over northwest India in January was the second lowest since 1901, India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday, but a warmer than usual February could see “above normal” rainfall in the region, the India Meteorological Department said Thursday.

Rainfall over northwest India in January was the second lowest since 1901. (HT Photo)

January saw poor rains across much of India, the weather office added: there was a 58% rainfall deficiency over the country as a whole; 91% deficiency over northwest India; 67% deficiency over east and northeast India; and 29% deficiency over central India. Only peninsular India, experiencing the withdrawal of the northeast monsoon recorded a large excess --133%.

To be sure, IMD’s forecast for February should factor in the fact that the agency got its January forecast wrong. On January 1, it said monthly rainfall for January over north India would likely tbe above normal (>122% of the so-called long period average), and monthly rainfall over the country as a whole, most likely to be above normal (>118% of LPA).

“We cannot say that our forecast was entirely wrong. The model predicted absolutely correctly that rainfall will be deficient over Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. It also correctly forecast that there will be above normal rainfall over peninsular India. But it also forecast that there will be above normal rainfall over the northern plains which was not correct. We are trying to improve our forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. It is a continuous process,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

Mohapatra said the large deficiency in rainfall over northwest India can be attributed to the lack of any strong western disturbances . “The reason may be linked to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A negative phase of NAO is linked to fewer and weaker western disturbances impacting our region,” he explained. NAO refers to pressure fluctuations over the North Atlantic ocean.

In January, northwest India saw five WDs, but most were far too north; only the latest one, between January 28 and 31, was south enough to bring rain and snow to north and northwest India.

North India also recorded an unusually prolonged and persistent fog episode covering the entire Indo-Gangetic Plains region from December 25 to January 30, which saw day temperatures plunging. Maximum temperatures in northwest India were -0.62 degrees below normal. But the mean temperature over the country in January was 0.49 degree C above normal making it the ninth warmest since 1901; the minimum temperature was 0.97 degree C above normal, the fourth highest for night temperatures. Peninsular India recorded its warmest January ever, with mean temperature 1.11 degree C above normal .

The strong El Nino conditions prevailing over Equatorial Pacific likely to weaken steadily and turn to neutral conditions by the end of spring, IMD added -- an assessment that is in sync with that from other agencies including the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That is early good news for the southwest monsoon -- the El Nino is negatively correlated with the monsoon rains -- although it is far too early for a monsoon forecast.