Stalin rises to the helm but AIADMK retains bastions

Chennai: MK Stalin led the DMK and its allies to a comfortable victory with 159 seats out of 234 in the Tamil Nadu assembly, as they were backed by Chennai and regions of the north, south and the centre

Chennai: MK Stalin led the DMK and its allies to a comfortable victory with 159 seats out of 234 in the Tamil Nadu assembly, as they were backed by Chennai and regions of the north, south and the centre. But defying the trend in these regions, the AIADMK retained its grip over its bastion, which is the western belt or Kongu region, from where outgoing chief minister Edappadi Palaniswami and other top ministers in his cabinet hail. A combination of their work and caste factor helped the party in putting up a tight fight along with its allies and securing 75 seats.

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Chennai

Chennai, with 16 assembly seats, showed that it remains the DMK’s fort with the party winning 15 and its main ally Congress securing one. Stalin won from the city’s Kolathur constituency for the third time. His son, who made his debut from late DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi borough -- Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni -- also won by a wide margin. AIADMK’s heavyweight outgoing ministers D Jayakumar and ‘Mafoi’ Panidarajan lost in the city wave that supported the DMK. In 2016, when J Jayalalithaa retained power, the AIADMK performed the worst in Chennai (37.5%) compared to other regions, winning only six seats. This was largely due to the electorate’s anger in the aftermath of the 2015 December floods in Chennai. The DMK wrested back these six constituencies and improved its vote share.

North

In the northern region, the DMK has gone from winning 35 seats in 2016 to 47 this election out of 64 seats. This region includes districts, such as Villupuram and Dharmapuri, where there are caste tensions. The AIADMK’s last-minute announcement of 10.5% internal reservation for the Vanniyar community, a core votebank of its ally Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), within the MBC (Most Backward Caste) quota resulted in a consolidation of non-Vanniyar votes. A considerable Dalit population in the region backed the DMK which is in alliance with Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (formerly known as the Dalit Panthers of India). The AIADMK’s law minister CV Shunmugam also lost to former partyman Dr R Lakshmanan who joined the DMK -- both candidates are Vanniyars. Interviews with voters before the polling indicated that the Vanniyars in this region weren’t appeased by the reservation, which they believed was a hasty decision done for political gains and may not come through -- some weren’t aware of the Bill being passed in the assembly.

West

The Vanniyar reservation, however, did have some gains in the western belt, which has a presence of Vanniyars as well as Gounders, a community to which Palaniswami belongs. A combination of caste factor as well as the work done by ministers here has helped the AIADMK regain its position after losing much of it to the DMK in the 2019 parliamentary elections. This region catapulted Jayalalithaa to become chief minister for the second time in 2016 where the party gave its best performance winning 84% of the seats. In 2021, this has reduced to 66% but higher than DMK’s 33%. However, following Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016, a divided AIADMK’s alliance with the BJP led to a strong anti-incumbency that had helped Stalin sweep 38/39 Lok Sabha seats.

On his home turf Edappadi constituency, Palaniswami won for the seventh time and bettered his margin by winning with a 92,849 vote difference this election compared to 42,022 vote margin in 2016. The party won six out of the eight segments falling within the Salem parliamentary constituency, which includes Edappadi seat. “He has caused a ripple effect as even those surrounding Salem voted for the AIADMK,” said political analyst Maalan Narayanan.

South and Central region

In DMK’s traditional stronghold, it reigned supreme --more than doubling its performance in the central region from 41.3% in 2016 to 86.9% this election. The DMK now has 40 MLAs from this region and AIADMK has come down from 27 to six MLAs. “The crop loan waiver has had no effect in the delta region,” said Narayanan. The central districts include Trichy, Nagappatinam, and Karur where the AIADMK’s efforts to appease farmers by waiving ₹12,110-crore crop loans for 1.63 million farmers and announcing delta districts as a protected agriculture zone didn’t help the party.

In the south, DMK’s campaign against police excesses in the Thoothukudi firing, in which 13 anti-Sterlite protestors died in May 2018, and the custodial deaths of the father-son duo last year seems to have worked. The DMK improved its vote percentage from 44.8% in the previous election to 68.9%. The big upset here was AIADMK’s rebel faction AMMK founder TTV Dhinakaran’s loss to sitting minister Kadambur Raju.

“It was expected that the south will see a split because of caste votes. AMMK was expected to take away Mukkaluthur caste voters who would support VK Sasikala but it seems to have gone to the DMK,” said Narayanan. “Overall, the AIADMK has to introspect because except for its stronghold in the west, the ministers in other regions have lost by huge margins.”