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BJP, Congress together can't muster majority: Book
Coalitions are inevitable and even the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and main opposition Congress cannot together muster a majority in parliament, says a new book.
Coalitions are inevitable and even the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and main opposition Congress cannot together muster a majority in parliament, says a new book.
Also, contrary to perceptions, Indian politics is not bipolar but multi-polar and will remain so for a long time, predicts the book, "A Time of Coalitions: Divided We Stand", released Friday.
"We could in the near future, perhaps as early as the (upcoming) general elections, have a Lok Sabha in which the BJP and the Congress put together cannot muster a majority," it says, gazing into the crystal ball.
Admitting that coalitions do slow down decision-making, the book concludes that coalitions are better equipped to face up to the challenge of narrowing social and economic gaps than any single party at the moment.
Authors Paranjoy Guha Thakurta and Shankar Raghuraman say it is difficult to predict whether coalitions will remain unstable, but maintain that ideological affinity is the key to the stability of a multi-party regime.
"Many think that coalitions are a temporary phenomenon, but we say that it is the reality of India, at least in the foreseeable future," Guha Thakurta says.
He also observes that Indian politics is far more complex than a "BJP versus Congress" scenario. "Both are marginal in many states where regional parties are the bigger players."
Also, the decline of the Congress - the party that ruled India for more than four decades - did not necessarily have a direct relation with the rise of the BJP.
Adds co-author Raghuraman: "The hype indicates that the BJP is on a roll, but recent reports indicate that the ground realities are far different.
"For the first time, there is a real possibility that the BJP and Congress together would get less than half the seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha."
The book says single party rule is unlikely in the foreseeable future, but neither is the country heading for a two-party system in a hurry.
"If anything, the polity could get even further fragmented in the immediate future," it forecasts.
The process of a single-party coalition - like the Congress that encompassed many sections of society - had started giving way to more explicit coalitional arrangements when the Congress lost the first time.
It assesses that though the era of coalitions will make electoral politics more cynical, sectarian and opportunistic, coalitions could contribute to deepening and strengthening the Indian democracy, with large sections feeling excluded in the past.
