BJP will regain power in Rajasthan: Opinion poll
An opinion poll conducted by Research and Development Initiative says that BJP will regain power in Rajasthan throwing out Congress in the Dec 1 polls.india Updated: Nov 29, 2003 21:06 IST
An opinion poll conducted by Research and Development Initiative (RDI) says that BJP would regain power in Rajasthan throwing out Congress in the December 1 Assembly elections.
It gives 105 to 115 out of 200 seats to BJP and 70 to 80 seats for Congress and 10 to 20 for others.
The BJP has lead of over eight per cent votes with 44.7 per cent votes share while Congress is expected to poll 36.2 per cent. Other smaller parties and independents will poll over 19.1 per cent.
The RDI conducted a comprehensive opinion poll in 50 Assembly segments of Rajasthan between November 24 and 28.
A representative sample of 200 registered vote was taken from each of 50 constituencies covered in the survey, it said.
The choice of candidates and high pitch campaign by the BJP has turned odds in its favour. On the one hand Congress has over 80 rebel candidates while BJP has just over 30 rebels. Thus the split of votes by the rebel candidates will certainly harm Congress more than BJP, it said.
Besides rebels, the main reason for BJP's likely historical performance is drastic change in voting pattern of different caste groups and the most significant of them is division of Jat votes.
Another significant historical change in this election would be split of Bhil votes. Bhil votes are critical in 22 seats in Banswara and neighbouring areas.
The survey revealed that some smaller parties such as BSP, SP, JD, INLD and some IND rebel candidates may be surprise winners in quite a few seats, it added.