Cloud over Indo-US nuke deal

With Bush?s visit just round the corner, the Indo-US N-deal seems to be a non-starter. HT examines the reasons.

With US President George Bush’s visit just round the corner, the Indo-US nuclear agreement seems to be a non-starter. Talks are deadlocked on the critical issue of separating India’s civilian and military nuclear facilities.

Standing in the way are not just Indian fears of having its nuclear deterrent compromised, but also the Bush administration’s compulsions in making a one-time waiver of nuke prohibitions for India.

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Both governments knew the deal would lead them into “uncharted territories”. The extent of the “difficulty” became apparent once the joint working group, headed by Under Secretary Nicholas Burns and Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, began talks.

The JWG is likely to meet before the Bush visit, though the US is yet to decide if this is the right time to send Burns to New Delhi again.

Why no deal •India fears its N-deterrent would be compromised. •A ‘yes’ vote in US Senate is difficult with at least three-fourths of India’s reactors needing to be safeguarded. •With the deal not working out, both sides are working on other initiatives, including removing barriers on Indian exports.

Sources say that the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership was “offered as a sop” to India as the main civil nuclear deal “might not work out.”

Moreover, US Ambassador David C Mulford’s recent warning of “devastating” consequences if India did not vote against Iran at the IAEA was “clear indication” of the difficulty in pushing the deal forward. Sources said Mulford’s warning came only after Washington’s ‘go-ahead’.

Again, Atomic Energy chief Anil Kakodkar’s recent criticism of the US’s “shifting goal posts,” was, sources said, a response to criticism within the US nuclear establishment to the deal.

It was also intended to ensure that India would “not go beyond or expand on the letter of the text” of the July 18 agreement.

Since the Bush visit is not being pegged on a single agenda, as part of other initiatives, Commerce Secretary SN Menon will visit Washington next week for talks to remove barriers to bilateral trade, particularly Indian exports.