Eyes on the votes, nose to the ground

In the recent bypolls, larger blots of colours have emerged and overall, the Congress has something to cheer about.

Seeing the bigger picture in a string of nationwide by-election results is not unlike seeing a painting with one’s nose pressed against the canvas. Some distance is required to make sense of who has gained in the polls and who has not. Also, as in gauging a work of art, the right perspective is needed while analysing the brushstrokes left behind by the electorates. This week, bye-polls were held in two parliamentary and 11 assembly seats across 11 states. The results show enough variation for nearly every political formation to read the results according to its own fancy. But within the patchwork, larger blots of colours have emerged and overall, the Congress has something to cheer about.

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At the cost of N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party — which, after its stint with the NDA and drubbing at the assembly polls, has turned into a party ‘concerned for the poor’ — the Congress won the Bobbilli Lok Sabha seat. The winning margin may have been a paltry 157 votes, but the Congress should be pleased at the result, especially since its ex-ally in Andhra Pradesh, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti, walloped the national party in the Karimnagar Lok Sabha seat, pointing to a re-affirmation of the surge of regional party power in Indian politics. In Maharashtra, it was less of a mixed result for the Grand Old Party, with the Congress winning at Daryapur and Chimur, wresting the two seats held by the Shiv Sena. These victories show that despite infighting and strong criticism against the entry of former Shiv Sainik Narayan Rane into the Congress fold, the Shiv Sena-BJP combine is on very shaky ground as the Maharashtra civic polls approach early next year. In Karnataka, it was the story of another Congress convert delivering the goods. The former Janata Dal (Secular) Deputy Chief Minister brought good tidings to the Congress by winning the Chamundeshwari seat, a constituency he won last time under a different party flag. The happy story for the Congress continued in Rajasthan, where tribal and minority support, ensured a BJP defeat in Dungarpur.

The BJP can find solace directly in retaining its Pandhana seat in Madhya Pradesh, and indirectly, in the victory of its ally, the Janata Dal (United), in the Manihari seat in Bihar. The CPI(M) in Kerala scraped through in Thiruvambadi, despite its shameless campaign that tom-tommed the virtues of Saddam Hussein and the accused in the Coimbatore terrorist attack, Abdul Nazar Madani. In West Bengal, the Left Front did not have to resort to such tactics as the CPI(M) romped home in Islampur, with the Singur agitation not being able to do the trick for the Trinamool Congress.

The by-elections provide a clue to what electorates across the country could be planning to do with their assembly votes. It is up to the various parties — both regional and national — to read the writings left on the scattered bypoll walls.