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LTTE row creates a powder keg
Ensuing tussle between two factions of LTTE is holding people of the region on tenterhooks, writes PK Balachanddran in Colombo Diary.
The people of the eastern Tamil region of Batticaloa-Amparai (BA) are on tenterhooks. The sense of ease which had begun to take root in the past two years of peace is in grave danger of disappearing.
The cause this time is not a shooting war between the traditional enemies the LTTE and the Sri Lankan Armed Forces - but a conflict between two factions of the LTTE, one led by the supremo, Velupillai Prabhakaran, and the other by his erstwhile regional satrap, "Colonel" Karuna.
A military clash between the two became a certainty after Prabhakaran dubbed Karuna a "traitor" and expelled him from the organization late last week. It is well understood that in the Tiger chieftain's dictionary, a "traitor" and his cohorts deserve nothing less than death. And he is not known to flinch from meting out the maximum punishment, disclaimers notwithstanding.
But Karuna is no push over. He is one of the most hardened and efficient warriors in the LTTE a veritable killing machine ( having overseen the cold blooded slaughter of 600 Sri Lankan policemen in 1990). Karuna is believed to have 6,000 armed cadres, out of which 2,000, he boasts, will die fighting for him.
Karuna has also raised the traditional issue of Northern Tamils discriminating against and dominating the Eastern Tamils, which strikes a sympathetic chord in the minds of many in BA district and which may give him a political base for his military actions.
Batticaloa-Amparai is thus bracing itself for a clash between two killing machines.
On Sunday, fairly reliable reports from the Wanni said that commanders and political commissars loyal to Prabhakaran had started moving into Batticaloa district. One source said that the sea route was being used given the fact that cadres with weapons could not cross over land as that would be a violation of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government.
But on Monday, anti-LTTE Tamil militant sources in Trincomalee said that a land movement was in fact underway. An expeditionary force of 200 well trained men under Colonel Sornam, the newly appointed Commander for Trincomalee, was trying to cross the Verugal river serving as the border between Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts. Trying to stop the crossing was a group of 500 men under Karuna, the sources said.
Though Karuna's group had not asked anybody to leave Batticaloa, students of the Eastern University in Chengalady, coming from Jaffna and Wanni, have fled. Many businessmen from the North have also left for undisclosed destinations fearing violence or persecution.
Power vacuum in Batticaloa
But, as of now, it is not clear to the people of Batticaloa-Amparai, as to which of the two groups has power, which one is on the ascendant or descendant. The quantum and quality of forces ranged against each other are still a matter of conjecture.
At the first sign of trouble, the Commanders and political leaders loyal to Prabhakaran fled BA district with their families to the safety of the Wanni, the headquarters of the LTTE and the seat of the Supremo. At the press conference in Kilinochchi on March 6, the refugee Commanders claimed full support among the cadres and the people of BA district, but could not explain why they had not pitched in and fought it out on the ground.
But equally strangely, the vacuum on the ground was not filled by Karuna. The offices of the LTTE remained unoccupied. There were reports that in the military camps, many of the forcibly recruited very young cadres were asked to go home. Karuna himself is yet to make an appearance before the press or the public, limiting his contact to a foreign wire service and the BBC.
Karuna's followers did organize one demonstration and hold a Womens' Day demonstration, but there is no evidence of any sustained mass contact campaign, except through the distribution of pamphlets.
But even this much has not been done by Prabhakaran's loyalists. At the press conference in Wanni, the LTTE's political commissar, SP Tamilselvan admitted that there was "fear and confusion" among the people of Batticaloa-Amparai though he dismissed Karuna's rebellion as "an individual's act" without cadre or mass support. Tamilselvan said that very soon, the confusion and fear would be removed, and appealed to the media to help in the task.
The speculation is that Karuna may be gathering his forces to fight the intruders from the Wanni. In the LTTE, priority is given to the military aspect as military strength is the basis of security and power flows from the barrel of the gun. Sornam's reported military expedition is based on aforementioned thesis of Mao Tse Tung.
Mixed feelings
The people of Batticaloa do not speak in one voice about the Prabhakaran-Karuna conflict.On the one hand, Prabhakaran is a virtual God for them, he having led the liberation struggle with commendable success, bringing to it international recognition and respect. The people feel that only he can help them realise their dream of creating a single, unified Tamil Homeland, comprising the North and East. They recognize that only Prabhakaran has unified and consolidated the Tamils a society traditionally extremely fractious and caste-ridden..
But on the other hand, there is a feeling that the LTTE's national leadership has been giving step-motherly treatment to the BA district, in line with the tradition wherein the Jaffna Tamil rules the roost and looks down upon the Eastern Tamil. Karuna has charged that in none of the 30 odd divisions of the LTTE's administrative set up, a BA person is at the helm. And while the cadres from the East are sweating it out in the bunkers Northern Tamil cadres are busy enhancing their qualifications or enjoying themselves. The Northern leaders move about in posh vehicles.
"Karuna has had the courage to bring out what has been conveniently brushed under the carpet," said an employee of the Eastern University. Batticaloa people say that the Eastern University teaching staff are behind the rise of the regional sentiment.
But many Eastern Tamils, did not approve of Karuna's efforts to hive off from the mainstream LTTE, foster regionalism and demand autonomy for "Then Eelam" or "South Eelam, " at a time when Tamil unity was the need of the hour.
Even admirers of Karuna point out that the unity of the North and the East is a cardinal objective which cannot be sacrificed. It has been one of the abiding features of the Tamil struggle and it was for this, that Prabhakaran unleashed Eelam War II. He refused to accept the Sri Lankan government's unofficial offer that he administer the North and leave the East alone.
Many Batticaloa Tamils noted that the Sinhala leadership of Sri Lanka were very pleased with Karuna's revolt and wanted to use it to divide the North and East and thereby weaken the Tamils as a whole. " Karuna's taking up this issue at this time, when unity is the need of the hour, was inopportune," said a retired Eastern Tamil government official.
"In the early days, the North vs East conflict was a fact of life, but the twenty year war has resulted in a fundamental change of attitude. The younger generation, especially, has no such notion of inferiority," said a local journalist. " In fact, the North is now less developed than the East, because the North has been the theatre of much of the fighting, devastation and displacement," he added.
Another Eastern Tamil said that if the LTTE's administrative structure had Norherners as heads it was because it was in the Northern districts that the LTTE had been running administration for long. From 1990 to 1995, they ran an administration in Jaffna and from 1995 on, they have been running an administration in the Wanni. The East, on the contrary, has been, for the most part, under Sri Lankan government jurisdiction. As for the charge that northern battles had claimed more Eastern lives, it was pointed out that it was the North which had seen more military action.
Significance of power
It seems that the politically aware and educated elements, with the exception of a section of the teachers in the Eastern University campus and some businessmen, are for being in the mainstream of the LTTE and do not support Karuna's action. But the non-politicised hoi polloi seem to be confused. They seem to be waiting to see who will establish hegemony. This group, will support whichever group is perceived as having the upper hand.
As a local journalist said, everything would depend on who manages to establish hegemony. If Prabhakaran and the anti-Karuna faction led by Ramesh, Sornam and others succeed in entering Batticaloa and quelling the revolt, they would be hailed as the saviours and the people would follow their diktat. But if Karuna manages to ward off the threat, he may consolidate himself and create his own satrapy a "Then Eelam" or South Eelam, which will have the support of influential sections of the Sri Lankan polity, which has never accepted the unification of the Tamil North and the ethnically mixed East.
It is also feared that a prolonged military clash between Prabhakaran and Karuna may endanger the peace process by taking attention away from it. A military setback may also make Prabhakaran go into the military mode once again, especially if he feels that it is the peace process which has created the dissension and revolt. If his claim to be the "sole" representative of the Tamil people suffers a grievous blow, he may abandon the peace process and concentrate on establishing his power which he knows only too well, flows from the barrel of the gun.
As of now, Prabhakaran has the support of the Sri Lankan state, the Sri Lankan Armed Forces and the international community. But such support may wane if he is not able to enforce his writ in BA district and other parts of the East. The East will then become the happy hunting ground for all divisive, anti-Tamil forces.
