Minority matters: Uttar Pradesh Muslims split

If there was one thing that stood out in the second phase of polling, it was the way the minority vote was split in Uttar Pradesh.

If there was one thing that stood out in the second phase of polling, it was the way the minority vote was split in Uttar Pradesh. The common perception is that UP's minority community votes en bloc, usually at the bidding of the All India Milli Council. The attempt is to stop BJP candidates constituency by constituency by getting Muslims to vote for the best non-BJP candidate. Exit poll projections for the 32 constituencies that voted on Monday in the state suggest otherwise.

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They indicated a shift in the (roughly 13 per cent) minority vote away from the Samajwadi Party to the Congress. The Bahujan Samaj Party, which was banking on a Dalit-Muslim axis, appears to have suffered in the process — even in Akbarpur, party boss Mayawati's constituency. But the BJP just about held on to its existing tally.

The split in the Muslim vote should please the BJP most. The party's strategy in UP was clear: it perceived Mulayam Singh as the single biggest threat and attempted to alienate his Muslim supporters by saying the BJP and the SP were ideologically close. BJP leaders said, however, that they were keeping their options open on post-poll alliances.

BJP leaders also admit that the arrival of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra on the scene helped attract minority votes.

That said, the SP continues to be the party of first choice for Muslims — it's just that it isn't as clear a first choice as it used to be.