New battle in Mogadishu

The fall of Mogadishu to Islamist militias last Monday marks an escalation of the chaotic conflicts that rack Somalia, pushing it ever deeper into statelessness.

The fall of Mogadishu to Islamist militias last Monday marks an escalation of the chaotic conflicts that rack Somalia, pushing it ever deeper into statelessness. Mogadishu’s seizure comes in the wake of the country’s worst period of violence (15 years) since former President Mohammed Siad Barre was ousted in 1991. After Barre’s overthrow, insurgent forces never seemed to be able to agree on forming a central authority, which led to regional and local leaders fighting for their scraps of power. Hundreds of civilians were killed since battles between the so-called Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) — an umbrella group of warlords and businessmen who dominated the city — and militias associated with the Islamic Court Union (ICU) broke out early this year.

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Somalia’s location makes it geopolitically significant as a gateway between Africa and the Middle East. Which is probably why its slide into anarchy prompted external powers — especially the US — to intervene in its conflicts. In fact, a US-led humanitarian-aid effort in 1993 that morphed into a hunt for some of Mogadishu’s warlords ended in disaster after several American soldiers were killed in a battle (made famous by the book Black Hawk Down). Even then, it was probably a strategic mistake for the US to have kept Somalia at arm’s length. Washington seems to have miscalculated by backing the ‘secular’ ARPCT warlords against the ICU militias backed by Islamic courts. By defeating the courts, Washington obviously hoped to prevent Somalia from becoming a base for Islamic revolution, given al Qaeda operatives are believed to be hiding there and the country has been used as a transit point for jihadis.

With that plan backfiring, the crucial question now is whether the Islamists will steer the country down an extremist path. If the answer is to be negative, the international community should make a concerted effort to help this ‘forgotten’ country.