Mumbai’s Covid-19 tally higher than civic body projection

The number of Covid-19 cases in the city is significantly more than what the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) had predicted, indicating a more rapid growth

The number of Covid-19 cases in the city is significantly more than what the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) had predicted, indicating a more rapid growth than the authorities had anticipated for the outbreak. The civic body’s projections are crucial since facilities like hospital beds, testing kits and ventilators are scaled up on the basis of these estimates. At present, there are 2.25 lakh cases of Covid-19 in Mumbai.

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Last month, the civic body had said it expected Mumbai’s Covid tally to reach 191,000 by October 4. However, on that date, the number of Covid-positive cases in Mumbai was 2,13,000. Of late, the city has also seen record numbers of new cases daily. On Wednesday, the city recorded 2,838 new cases of Covid-19, which is the highest daily count so far. BMC’s projection for the number of active cases has also been surpassed. The civic body had said it expected the number of active cases in the city to reach 26, 628 by September 15. The total number of active cases on September 15 was 30, 879.

A senior civic official said the projections have helped BMC keep pace with the outbreak. “These prediction numbers kept evolving over multiple iterations, and there are various other models that are combined and aggregated and then the estimations are considered. We have not fallen short of beds. These prediction models keep getting aggregated and refined basis evolving protocols and situations, and have in fact guided us well.”

Experts said the prediction models may have failed because of irresponsible human behaviour, like ignoring social distancing norms and not wearing masks. Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the state’s Covid-19 task force, said, “Apart from Covid-19 being unpredictable, the biology of the virus is not a mathematical model. Human behaviour is a key reason for viral transmission. If citizens act recklessly, don’t follow the rules of social distancing or wear masks, the number of cases is going to increase sharply. Any prediction will fail unless all citizens self-regulate. During the festive season, citizens did not wear masks or follow rules of social distancing, which led to the surge in cases.” Joshi added that many make simple mistakes like removing masks in enclosed places. “I want to advise citizens to not remove masks while speaking, or while they are in the toilet. Avoid removing masks as much as possible,” he said.

The BMC started testing for Covid-19 on February 3 and the first case was detected in the city on March 11. The number cases peaked in May for Mumbai but gradually reduced after June. By the end of August, after the festive season, the city saw an increase in cases. Since the second week of September, the caseload for Covid-19 has seen another sharp spike, with over 2,000 new cases being reported daily, on an average. September also saw BMC scaling up its testing capacity by 43% . Daily testing figures went up from 4,000-5,000 in June to up to 15, 000 in September.

Of the total 11.15 lakh tests conducted in Mumbai as of September 29, more than 52% (5.80 lakh) of the tests were conducted in August and September. From September 1 to September 29, over 3.41 lakh Covid-19 tests were conducted in Mumbai. The corresponding figure for August and July was 2.38 lakh and 2.04 lakh respectively.