Acid test for Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis?

On Monday, the State Election Commission (SEC) declared the schedule for elections to 212 municipal councils governing small cities. In effect, it is beginning of

On Monday, the State Election Commission (SEC) declared the schedule for elections to 212 municipal councils governing small cities. In effect, it is beginning of fivesix months long elections to local government bodies in urban and rural Maharashtra which is also being touted as mini-assembly polls. It would be seen as referendum on the functioning of the BJP-led government and chief minister Devendra Fadnavis.

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In fact, it would not be wrong to say that the next six months would be an acid test for Fadnavis. Close to completing his two years in office, Fadnavis has already been facing heat in past few weeks and will be more under pressure in next few months. He is expected to lead the party to impressive victory in the local polls, pacify the Maratha community which is staging massive protests, keep a troublesome ally like Shiv Sena in the government and make his government deliver.

The BJP and Fadnavis are yet to find a way to deal with the unrest in the Maratha community. The protests were triggered by the brutal rape and murder of a girl in Kopardi in Ahmednagar district. The initial demand was death sentence for the accused. Since the accused were from Scheduled Castes (Ahmednagar has bitter history of caste-based violence), the Maratha community groups started demanding scrapping of the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities Act) 1989 which is commonly known as Atrocities Act alleging that the same was being misused against them. Later, as the protests got bigger, the demand for reservation for Marathas in government jobs and education took the centre stage.

With a major and politically influential community protesting against his government, Fadnavis has quite a task at hand to pacify them. He will have to find a legal solution to the issue as previous Congress-NCP government’s decision to provide 16% reservation for Marathas was stayed by the Bombay high Court.

The BJP is aware that ire of Maratha community could mean trouble in the coming elections and if its main opposition parties manage to put together a Maratha-Muslim combination, it will face a formidable challenge in the elections.

The elections itself would put to test Fadnavis’ skills to win the electoral battle. An impressive performance in the civic and district polls would mean he will have no trouble completing five-year tenure as CM. However, if the party fails to perform well, there could be attempts from within his party to dislodge him. Little wonder, Fadnavis is keen for an alliance with the Shiv Sena for crucial civic bodies like Mumbai. It is quite visible that he has already made the Sena-bashers in his party to dilute their stand to an extent. His thrust, it seems will be on not wasting energy by fighting against ally and the rivals at the same time. How much of that is accepted by the party leadership would determine how fiercely Fadnavis and his lieutenants will have to fight the local polls.

Significantly for him, Fadnavis’ challenges are coming at a time when he is completing two years in the office. As his government is entering third year this month-end, questions will be asked over its performance and achievements. Fadnavis has succeeded in creating a buzz around his government and taken up several ambitious projects. However, such projects take time for completion. As such, he will have limited response when questions are asked what his government has delivered so far.

In a nutshell, Fadnavis’ skills as politician as well as an electoral strategist will be put to test over next few months. He has already shown political acumen by handling situations involving party colleagues as well as political rivals. Not many from his party were convinced when he was handpicked by the top bosses of the BJP to head the Maharashtra government. Politically, he has performed better than was expected of him in two years. Will he surprise his friends and foes further?