Keeping up with UP | The upcoming bypolls are key to shaping BJP’s future path in the state
After the party’s poor performance in the 2024 polls, knives are out against Yogi with Maurya leading the rebel group
Bypolls rarely have a bearing on the stability of the state government or its leaders but the upcoming elections to 10 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP) have generated huge interest as many link the future of the state leadership with its results.
Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) poor performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, which deprived Prime Minister Narendra Modi of a comfortable third term, there has been speculation about the high command’s plan to overhaul both the government and the party organisation.
The state BJP chief Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary, according to party leaders aware of developments but who asked not to be named, had submitted his resignation owing the responsibility for the party’s flop show in UP. The offer was declined. Those who expected a similar gesture from Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath were disappointed as people close to him countered the demand for his resignation saying “…he did not play a crucial role in candidate selection”.
The plan to give a fresh look to both the organisation and government has apparently been shelved in view of the upcoming state assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana and the by-polls to the 10 assembly seats in UP.
Though the Election Commission of India (ECI) is yet to announce the schedule, Adityanath, who has been facing much heat after the party’s dismal performance in the Lok Sabha polls, convened a meeting of ministers and allotted a constituency each to a group of three ministers. The party office-bearers were kept out of the meeting.
This has further intensified the tug of war between the government and the organisation, which was triggered by deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya’s statement at a poll review meeting, ‘The party is bigger than the government.’ Thus, the question: Is Yogi trying to prove Maurya wrong?
Adityanath and Maurya have been engaged in a power tussle since the 2017 assembly elections when as state BJP president had hoped to occupy the coveted chair of the chief minister after the party’s spectacular victory in the state assembly elections. The differences kept simmering even though Maurya was appointed deputy CM in 2017 and again in 2022. That he had the blessings of central leadership was clear from the fact that he was reinstated as the deputy chief minister even after losing his seat in 2022.
Now, after the party’s poor performance in the 2024 polls, knives are out against Yogi with Maurya leading the rebel group. He has not attended any cabinet meeting since the results were announced.
It is believed that Delhi will take a decisive call on the reorganisation of the government and the state party organisation after the bypolls. Campaigning for the seats is expected to be solely handled by Adityanath instead of the troika that led the show in the recent Lok Sabha polls – Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah and Yogi. Thus, while many are linking the by-poll results to the chief minister’s future, others see a ray of hope in the deferment as political equations within the BJP and the RSS keep fluctuating.
Thrice when by-polls made news
Before the BJP’s spectacular rise in UP in the 2014 Lok Sabha and subsequent victories in 2017 and 2022 state assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the common belief was the party in power won maximum seats as voters preferred to remain on the right side of power - something also witnessed in the Zilla Parishad and Local Bodies elections.
Like in the 2009 by-elections to 10 state assemblies and one Lok Sabha seat, the then the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won nine seats in the bypolls.
In the 2018 bypolls, the Samajwadi Party’s (SP) victory in Gorakhpur and Phulpur had sent shockwaves through the BJP. The seats were won by Adityanath and Maurya in the 2014 General elections. Both resigned their seats after they were appointed CM and deputy CM after winning the 2017 assembly polls. The SP-BSP experimented with BSP leader Mayawati extending support to SP candidate Praveen Nishad in Gorakhpur and not fielding a candidate in support of Narendra Pratap Singh of SP in Phulpur.
However, in the 2022 Lok Sabha bypolls, BJP avenged the defeat by winning the two SP strongholds of Rampur and Azamgarh, both Muslim-dominated constituencies. Azamgarh was vacated by SP’s national president Akhilesh Yadav after winning the 2022 assembly polls. He fielded his nephew Dharmendra Yadav, who lost the seat by barely 8679 votes as BSP played spoilsport by fielding a popular local Muslim candidate who cut into their support base. By then the SP-BSP relations had soured.
Rampur was also vacated by SP’s senior leader Mohd Azam Khan after winning assembly polls. BJP’s Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi won the seat.
In bypolls held in seven seats in 2020, BJP won six while SP retained one throwing cold waters on the opposition’s plan to exploit Covid-19 pandemic mismanagement against the Yogi government.
Now, while Adityanath may be desperate to win all the 10 seats to reassert his invincibility in UP, the Opposition would like to take away the maximum to destabilise his government. As of now, the SP and the NDA( BJP-3, RLD-1, Nishad Party-1) hold five seats each.
Sunita Aron is a consulting editor with the HT based in Lucknow. You can find her on X as @overto. The weekly column, Keeping up with UP tackles everything from politics to social and cultural mores in the country's most populous state. The views expressed are personal.
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