To address population ageing, an Indo-US partnership makes a world of sense
India's ageing population presents opportunities for collaboration between the US and India, with implications for the economy and workforce
This year, India supplanted China as the world’s most populous nation. While commentators tend to focus on the geopolitical and economic implications, few draw attention to a crucial point: India’s population is ageing at a fast rate, mirroring (if asynchronously) US and global demographic trends. These shifts offer tremendous opportunities for United States-India bilateral collaboration.
Data from the 2022 Global Longevity Economic Outlook Report published by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP)—the world’s largest nonprofit organization for the 50-plus population—show that in 2020, there were 268 million people in India aged 50 years or older. This represents 19 percent of the population— higher than the average across lower- and middle-income economies. By the year 2050, this number is projected to reach 537 million—33 percent of the total population. India’s demographic shift mirrors global trends, including in the United States (US).
Since the country remains relatively young by global standards (the median age is 28.4), the country’s thought leaders tend to focus on current social needs, such as reducing maternal and child mortality, improving education, and encouraging economic growth, while overlooking how these positive advancements are increasing longevity and lowering birth rates.
As in the United States and globally, India’s ageing population will have major implications for its future trajectory. For instance, women in India currently make up less than 20 percent of the workforce—one of the lowest rates in the world, which limits the country’s GDP growth. Women are also a significant majority of the unpaid caregivers to the elderly in India (by some estimates, 84 percent of caregivers in South Asia are women), which will increasingly prevent more women from entering the labour force as the population ages.
India’s current non-mechanized agricultural sector is also at risk from reduced growth as the rural share of the 50-plus population grows. In addition, major investments in infrastructure now underway, such as public transportation, could become obsolete if they do not account for the needs of India’s future demographic mix. These are just a handful of several realities that India will face as it ages.
Recognizing demographic changes in a timely fashion will enable Indian thought leaders to ensure the country harnesses the potential of a growing 50-plus population, tapping into their ability to contribute to society in a myriad of ways. Although ageism persists in India and globally, the world’s 50-plus contingent will continue to be robust societal contributors and economic drivers: —In 2020, the 50-plus population contributed $45 trillion (USD) to global GDP through consumer spending, accounting for more than 30 percent of the global economy.
Insights from the AARP Global Longevity Economy Outlook Report reveal that in India, too, older adults continue to account for a large portion of both the economy and workforce. In 2020, spending by the 50-plus population generated enormous positive economic impacts, accounting for 34 percent of India’s GDP and impacting 161 million jobs or 36 percent of total employment—trends that are projected to increase in the decades to come. This segment of the population was also responsible for 40 percent of all domestic consumer spending in 2020.
Although India and the United States are different in terms of their economies, they are facing similar, if not entirely synchronous, population ageing. Both are also largely dependent on family-centric care. A strong US-India partnership on population ageing offers a fruitful way to build bilateral cooperation to the benefit of both countries.
Commercial areas that are already the source of our strongest cooperation, such as IT (including Artificial Intelligence development) and pharmaceutical trade, could yield significant mutual benefits as our populations age. There could be a benefit also from including population ageing-related issues in a range of current bilateral government-to-government dialogues, including the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (or iCET), where exchanges on trusted Artificial Intelligence and other emergency technologies should take into account the impact on both countries’ 50-plus populations.
Ageing-related issues should be a focus of our government-to-government engagement, such as the Indo-U.S. Health Dialogue, which covers joint research, digital health, and mental health. The Education and Skills Development Working Group is a dialogue that could be relevant in ensuring that 50-plus workers in both countries remain fully engaged in the workplace. A bilateral partnership on population ageing could also create opportunities to boost initiatives in a range of regional and economic forums, including the Quad (especially given Japan’s own population makeup), the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), the G20 (members of which include China and other countries experiencing population ageing), and the United Nations, including WHO and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
The success of the Indo-US relationship will depend in large measure on how we seize opportunities that can benefit both sides. By encouraging government and private sector cooperation on population ageing, both bilaterally and with like-minded international partners, we can build on our current partnership to create the accommodation and innovation our countries need to remain stable and prosperous in the years ahead.
Katherine B Hadda, is a visiting fellow with the Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC. Vijeth Iyengar, is the director of Global Aging at the American Association of Retired Persons. The views expressed are personal