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What will Trump 2.0 do to contain Tehran?

Jan 25, 2025 07:57 PM IST

An immediate foreign policy issue before the Trump administration is the risk of Iranian nuclear proliferation

Donald Trump’s return as United States (US) president has already re-shaped geopolitical and diplomatic engagements in West Asia. Israel and Hamas agreed on a ceasefire and hostages-for-prisoners deal, dispelling eight months of uncertainty. Trump had warned Hamas that “all hell would break out in the Middle East” if it failed to release all the hostages by January 20. While Joe Biden, fearing domestic pushback in an election year, was circumspect in putting public pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump had told him to swiftly “get your victory” because the “killing has to stop” in Gaza.

A 3D-printed miniature model of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and the U.S. and Iran flags are seen in this illustration taken January 15, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration (REUTERS) PREMIUM
A 3D-printed miniature model of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and the U.S. and Iran flags are seen in this illustration taken January 15, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration (REUTERS)

Trump argued that a prolonged war was damaging Israel’s image globally. He had been saying that the Gaza and Ukraine wars wouldn’t have happened under his watch. Seemingly, Trump thinks his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, from his first term, was a success. Critics point at Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the US’s nuclear deal with Iran prompting the latter to substantially expand its uranium enrichment activities and drastically reduce the timeline for making nuclear weapons.

An immediate foreign policy issue before the Trump administration is the risk of Iranian nuclear proliferation. The second Trump presidency, in the words of the new secretary of state, Marco Rubio, finds itself at an especially “tenuous moment” regarding Iran’s nuclear programme and broader strategic orientation. With Hamas and Hezbollah greatly diminished by Israel, and the Bashar al-Assad regime overthrown by Turkish-backed Sunni Islamists, key voices in Iran are stressing the importance of nuclear deterrence to compensate for the erosion of indirect deterrence through Iran’s “axis of resistance”. At the same time, the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian government is keen to alleviate domestic challenges and navigate recent geopolitical setbacks by reigniting dialogue with the Europeans and, potentially, with the US.

Following up on earlier consultations in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator recently met with representatives of the E3 (Britain, Germany, and France) in Geneva to resume talks based on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) framework. Both sides said talks were constructive, but the European position on nuclear Iran is now closer to Washington’s aggressive approach. Iran’s support for Russia in Ukraine and the growing range and sophistication of its missiles have made the Europeans more determined than ever to re-impose UN sanctions on Iran as leverage. Notably, this “snapback” must be done before October 2025, when UN Security Council resolution 2231, which enshrined the JCPOA, expires and the possibility of renewing previous UN sanctions will disappear. Iran is going to resist the western push to include the missile programme and its regional activities in the negotiating agenda. Tehran also swears a decisive response to snapback, including withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Trump will have the support of his Persian Gulf allies and the wider West Asia when it comes to finding a lasting settlement to the Iranian nuclear issue. These nations view Iran as being on a quest for regional hegemony by supporting militias in the Arab world. The Gulf countries have called for more American leadership in West Asia, especially in expanding the Abraham Accords as a platform for cooperation with Israel and peace in Palestine but are unlikely to get behind the all-options-on-the-table approach indicated by some members of the Trump team. As a workaround, Trump may prefer to empower Israel to escalate military attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, under a renewed “maximum pressure” doctrine. When it comes to hostile action against Iran, Tehran makes no distinction between Israel and the US. It has repeatedly threatened to close the choke point of the Strait of Hormuz and strike US military bases as retaliatory measures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recently carried out a large-scale military exercise in western Iran. The coming weeks will tell whether Trump will be a pro-peace president or get drawn into West Asia’s forever wars.

Deepika Saraswat is associate fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views expressed are personal

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