Tele-connecting geographical areas can help predict monsoon dates, says expert
Surovyatkina was in the city on Friday delivering a scientific lecture organised by the India Meteorological Society (IMD), Pune Chapter and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.pune Updated: Jan 13, 2018 18:12 IST
Teleconnection between two geographical areas, namely the Eastern Ghats and North Pakistan, can help predict dates of monsoon onset and withdrawal, said Elena Surovyatkina, professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany,and a leading researcher at the Space Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
Surovyatkina was in the city on Friday delivering a scientific lecture organised by the India Meteorological Society (IMD), Pune Chapter and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. Present on the occasion were IITM, Pune director Ravi Shankar Nanjundiah and Dr R Krishnan from India Meteorological Society, Pune Chapter among others.
Surovyatkina spoke on the topic ‘Predicting onset and withdrawal of Indiansummer monsoon: Observational evidence forresults of tipping elements approach.’
Speaking on the occasion, Surovyatkina said, "To estimate the time of onset and withdrawal of monsoon, we have an approach based on teleconnection between two geographical areas - the Eastern Ghats and North Pakistan- which we define as tipping elements of Indian summer monsoon.In our study of the Indian monsoon season, we have found the evidence in observational data that we can consider the onset of monsoon as a critical transition – a sudden transition to the monsoon when critical thresholds (in particular, in near-surface air temperature, relative humidity) are reached. This finding allows us to use the critical transition theory for developing the tipping elements approach for prediction of onset and withdrawal dates of the summer monsoon.”
Surovyatkina added that these tipping elements approach allows us to predict the timing for the upcoming monsoon onset and withdrawal for 40 to 70 days in advance."This method allows predicting monsoon, not only retrospectively (over the period 1951-2015), but also in the future. The prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity. In 2016 and 2017, we proved that such early prediction of the monsoon timing is possible," said Surovyatkina.
She further stated that the proposed approach is applicable to different kind of seasons which exhibits properties of critical transition.Surovyatkina clarified that the prediction is based on observational data only and the model cannot accurately anticipate the transition or does not exist yet.