Medical experts say it’s risky to host Olympics without vaccine

Tokyo The fresh dates of the Tokyo Olympics that was postponed last month from 2020 to 2021 due to the covid-19 pandemic are still more than a year away but experts

Tokyo The fresh dates of the Tokyo Olympics that was postponed last month from 2020 to 2021 due to the covid-19 pandemic are still more than a year away but experts have raised multiple concerns on whether the quadrennial extravaganza will be safe to be hosted even then.

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A Japanese expert who has criticised the country’s response to the coronavirus warned on Monday that he is “pessimistic” that the postponed Olympics can be held even from July 23-August 8, 2021.

“To be honest with you I don’t think the Olympics is likely to be held next year,” said Kentaro Iwata, a professor of infectious diseases at Kobe University.

In recent days, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread worldwide, there have been questions about whether even a year-long delay will be sufficient.

Iwata told a press briefing that the virus would have to be under control at home and abroad for the Games to take place “because you have to invite the athletes and the audience from all over the world”.

“Japan might be able to control this disease by next summer, I wish we could, but I don’t think that would happen everywhere on earth, so in this regard I’m very pessimistic about holding the Olympic Games next summer.”

Iwata said he could only see the Games being held next year if they were significantly altered, “such as no audience, or very limited participation”.

Iwata made headlines earlier this year for his public criticism of Japan’s handling of the coronavirus-wracked Diamond Princess cruise ship that docked off the country’s coast. Japanese officials opted to carry out an on-ship quarantine, but more than 700 people on board ended up contracting the virus, and 13 died.

The decision to postpone the Olympics is unprecedented in peacetime, and followed a wave of complaints from athletes facing travel bans and lockdowns.

‘Speculative questions’

Asked about potential delays to the 2021 date, organisers said their “mission is to prepare the stage for next summer”.

“We do not feel it is appropriate to respond to speculative questions,” they told AFP. “With regard to countermeasures against COVID-19, Tokyo 2020 and the IOC have a framework for information exchange and are cooperating closely with the World Health Organization.

“We will continue to work closely with relevant organisations and review all necessary countermeasures.” Last week, Tokyo 2020 spokesman Masa Takaya told reporters at an online briefing there is “no Plan B” for the Games being postponed again.

Vaccination

But Iwata is not the only expert to have raised questions about 2021, with Devi Sridhar, chair of global health at the University of Edinburgh, warning last week that it was “very unrealistic” to think the Games could be held next year unless a vaccine is found.

“If we do get a vaccine within the next year then actually I think that (Olympics) is realistic. The vaccine will be the game-changer - an effective, affordable, available vaccine,” Sridhar told the BBC. “If we don’t get a scientific breakthrough then I think that looks very unrealistic.”

The decision to delay the Games was a painful one for organisers and the IOC, which came in for criticism for the drawn-out decision to postpone.

Initially both officials in Japan and at the IOC insisted the Games could go ahead as planned, even as lockdowns around the world meant athletes were shut out of training locations and forced to stay home.

Zach Binney, an epidemiologist at Emory University in the United States, echoed Sridhar’s views on finding the vaccine to covid-19 before thinking of hosting the Olympics.

“When we talk about bringing sports back with packed stadiums, I really think that is something we are going to have to wait for a vaccine to be able to do,” Binney said.

“Every person that you add to a gathering adds risk,” added Binney, who expects vaccine development would take 1-1/2 years from the start of the outbreak, or until late 2021, at the earliest.

“So once you get up to 50,000, 70,000, 100,000 (fans)... that is an enormous amount of risk to be taking on without a vaccine.”

The Olympics was “a uniquely risky event”, he added, because of the threats represented by visitors streaming in from areas with a lot of infections, and the reverse flow when they return afterwards, perhaps carrying home infections.

Jason Kindrachuk, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Manitoba in Canada, flagged a risk of further delay to the Games, as vaccinating people would take time.

“It is going to push the limits right up to the border of when the Olympics should be starting,” said Kindrachuk, who has worked on outbreaks of Ebola and SARS.

“You want to get people vaccinated not right at the point of the Olympics, but a little bit beforehand, so they build up that protective immunity.”

Creative thinking

Even if a vaccine were not ready, the organisers might still be able to hold the Games, as long as they were flexible and well prepared, Kindrachuk added.

“It is going to take some creative thinking, and hopefully some willingness from the public, to at least still partake in watching... understanding that it is just simply not going to look like what we have seen before.”

Binney said the safest option would be for athletes to arrive in Tokyo four to six weeks in advance and follow rigorous isolation measures for two weeks before moving into the Olympic village to train for the remaining period. “My goal would be to have the Olympic Village as a virus-free quarantine zone,” he added.